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| Group A | MP | GD | Pts | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | 1st | R16 | QF | Semi | Final | Champ | ||
| Italy | 2 | 6 | - | 0 | 6 | < 1% | < 1% | 15% | 85% | 100% | 70% | 36% | 19% | 9% |
| Wales | 2 | 3 | - | 1 | 4 | < 1% | 9% | 76% | 15% | 100% | 41% | 16% | 5% | 2% |
| Switzerland | 2 | 1 | - | 4 | 1 | 30% | 61% | 9% | < 1% | 46% | 17% | 8% | 3% | < 1% |
| Turkey | 2 | 0 | - | 5 | 0 | 70% | 30% | < 1% | < 1% | 13% | 3% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
Italy are through to the knock-out stage, and Wales are almost there. They need to take a point against Italy or if Switzerland fail to win over Turkey they have clinched the spot in R16.
Switzerland need to win against Turkey to survive, and if they do they are likely (>98.6%) through.
| Italy - Wales | |||||
| Home | Draw | Away | |||
| 46% | 46% | 46% | Swi - Tur | ||
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | +4 | |
| 99.97% | 99.9% | 99.9% | 99.96% | +3 | |
| 99.4% | 99.2% | 99.2% | 99.3% | +2 | |
| 98.7% | 98.4% | 98.5% | 98.6% | +1 | |
| < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | Draw | |
| < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | Away | |
Turkey need to win against Switzerland and they need to improve their goal difference to have a decent chance to qualify as a third team.
| Italy - Wales | |||||
| Home | Draw | Away | |||
| 13% | 13% | 13% | Swi - Tur | ||
| < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | Home | |
| < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | Draw | |
| 24% | 25% | 24% | 24% | 0-1 | |
| 29% | 29% | 30% | 29% | 1-2 | |
| 33% | 33% | 35% | 33% | 2-3 | |
| 50% | 50% | 48% | 49% | 0-2 | |
| 55% | 55% | 54% | 55% | 1-3 | |
| 72% | 74% | 73% | 72% | 0-3 | |
| 77% | 76% | 77% | 77% | 1-4 | |
| 91% | 91% | 91% | 91% | -4 | |
Group B can become very tight. Denmark still have good chances if they lose against Belgium today, but a point (or a win) would obviously help.
| Group B | MP | GD | Pts | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | 1st | R16 | QF | Semi | Final | Champ | ||
| Belgium | 1 | 3 | - | 0 | 3 | < 1% | 3% | 28% | 68% | 99% | 74% | 51% | 32% | 20% |
| Denmark | 1 | 0 | - | 1 | 0 | 21% | 11% | 44% | 23% | 77% | 46% | 26% | 12% | 5% |
| Finland | 2 | 1 | - | 1 | 3 | 43% | 41% | 8% | 7% | 40% | 9% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Russia | 2 | 1 | - | 3 | 3 | 35% | 45% | 19% | 1% | 37% | 11% | 3% | < 1% | < 1% |
It's very likely that there will be several third teams with three points. Currently, a goal difference of 3-6 or better is needed to have a 50% chance.
| Pts | GD | Probability | Last 16 | Chance |
| 4 | - | 29% | 29% | 99.31% |
| 3 | 0 | 6% | 6% | 94% |
| 3 | 3-4 | 2.6% | 2.2% | 85% |
| 3 | 4-6 | 2.2% | 1.7% | 77% |
| 3 | 3-5 | 2.7% | 2.0% | 73% |
| 3 | 2-4 | 1.8% | 1.2% | 67% |
| 3 | 4-7 | 1.7% | 1.1% | 63% |
| 3 | 3-6 | 3.0% | 1.7% | 56% |
| 3 | 2-5 | 3.5% | 1.7% | 47% |
| 3 | 1-4 | 1.8% | < 1% | 42% |
| 3 | 3-7 | 2.1% | < 1% | 36% |
| 3 | 2-6 | 3.0% | < 1% | 29% |
| 3 | 1-5 | 2.5% | < 1% | 24% |
| 3 | -5 | 4.1% | < 1% | 20% |
| 2 | - | 8% | < 1% | 2.9% |
The updated bracket.
| Last 16 | Quarter-finals | Semi-finals | Final | Champions | ||||
Belgium (68%) Denmark (23%) | ||||||||
Belgium (51%) Denmark (14%) Germany (8%) | ||||||||
Germany (23%) Slovakia (15%) Portugal (14%) Sweden (9%) Switzerland (8%) | ||||||||
Belgium (34%) Italy (30%) Denmark (8%) Germany (4%) | ||||||||
Italy (85%) | ||||||||
Italy (62%) Ukraine (13%) Austria (10%) | ||||||||
Ukraine (43%) Austria (41%) Netherlands (14%) | ||||||||
Belgium (23%) France (20%) Italy (16%) Portugal (12%) Spain (5%) | ||||||||
France (54%) Portugal (38%) | ||||||||
France (42%) Portugal (28%) Switzerland (7%) | ||||||||
Switzerland (22%) Finland (16%) Austria (15%) Ukraine (11%) Russia (11%) | ||||||||
France (32%) Portugal (20%) Spain (9%) Sweden (7%) | ||||||||
Czechia (45%) Croatia (36%) England (15%) | ||||||||
Sweden (24%) Czechia (19%) Croatia (18%) Spain (17%) | ||||||||
Sweden (45%) Slovakia (25%) Spain (23%) | ||||||||
Belgium (20%) France (18%) Spain (12%) Portugal (11%) Italy (9%) | ||||||||
Spain (67%) Sweden (18%) | ||||||||
Spain (51%) Sweden (10%) Austria (6%) | ||||||||
Austria (21%) Ukraine (16%) Czechia (11%) Croatia (9%) Finland (8%) | ||||||||
Spain (28%) England (21%) France (15%) Portugal (13%) | ||||||||
England (82%) Czechia (14%) | ||||||||
England (37%) France (22%) Portugal (22%) Germany (13%) | ||||||||
Portugal (36%) France (34%) Germany (28%) | ||||||||
Spain (17%) England (14%) Netherlands (12%) France (11%) Portugal (10%) | ||||||||
Netherlands (83%) Austria (13%) | ||||||||
Netherlands (52%) Germany (8%) Portugal (6%) | ||||||||
Slovakia (16%) Germany (16%) Czechia (14%) Croatia (11%) Portugal (10%) | ||||||||
Netherlands (27%) Denmark (16%) Belgium (15%) Wales (13%) | ||||||||
Wales (76%) Italy (15%) | ||||||||
Wales (30%) Denmark (27%) Belgium (21%) Italy (8%) | ||||||||
Denmark (44%) Belgium (28%) Russia (19%) |
| Country | R16 | QF | Semi | Final | Champ |
| Belgium | 99% | 74% | 51% | 32% | 20% |
| France | 96% | 70% | 50% | 30% | 18% |
| Spain | 97% | 72% | 39% | 23% | 12% |
| Portugal | 97% | 63% | 41% | 22% | 11% |
| Italy | 100% | 70% | 36% | 19% | 9% |
| England | 99% | 49% | 26% | 16% | 9% |
| Netherlands | 100% | 60% | 31% | 13% | 6% |
| Denmark | 77% | 46% | 26% | 12% | 5% |
| Germany | 74% | 35% | 18% | 8% | 3% |
| Wales | 100% | 41% | 16% | 5% | 2% |
| Sweden | 80% | 39% | 13% | 4% | 1% |
| Switzerland | 46% | 17% | 8% | 3% | < 1% |
| Croatia | 61% | 27% | 9% | 3% | < 1% |
| Ukraine | 74% | 23% | 7% | 2% | < 1% |
| Czechia | 87% | 31% | 8% | 2% | < 1% |
| Austria | 90% | 24% | 6% | 2% | < 1% |
| Poland | 20% | 8% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Russia | 37% | 11% | 3% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Turkey | 13% | 3% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Finland | 40% | 9% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Slovakia | 68% | 17% | 3% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Hungary | 12% | 3% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Scotland | 19% | 5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| North Macedonia | 11% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
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