Euro: Belgium rushing through the group

Group A	MP	GD			Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
Italy	1	3	-	0	3	< 1%	5%	13%	81%	99%	70%	36%	20%	10%
Switzerland	1	1	-	1	1	23%	32%	35%	10%	62%	30%	14%	5%	2%
Wales	1	1	-	1	1	28%	34%	30%	8%	56%	25%	10%	3%	< 1%
Turkey	1	0	-	3	0	49%	28%	22%	1%	38%	14%	5%	2%	< 1%

 Turkey's matches against Switzerland and Wales will be key to this group. A win for Switzerland/Wales almost (99.8%) gives them a spot in R16, whereas a loss makes it very complicated (<20%). A win for Turkey gives them good chances.

Group B	MP	GD			Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
Belgium	1	3	-	0	3	< 1%	6%	24%	70%	99%	73%	51%	33%	21%
Denmark	1	0	-	1	0	18%	38%	25%	19%	75%	43%	24%	12%	5%
Finland	1	1	-	0	3	27%	27%	36%	10%	67%	19%	5%	1%	< 1%
Russia	1	0	-	3	0	54%	30%	15%	< 1%	33%	9%	3%	< 1%	< 1%

Finland have almost clinched (99.7%) a spot in R16 if they avoid losing against Russia, and if they win the spot is clinched. Russia have 56% if they beat Finland, otherwise only 8%.

 Below are the chances to win a spot in R16 as third in the group, given different point and goal difference. Currently, 3 points and 2-5 is needed to have more than 50% chance.

Pts	GD	Probability	Last 16	Chance
4	-	30%	30%	99.01%
3	0	7%	6%	91%
3	3-4	2.1%	1.7%	82%
3	4-6	2.3%	1.7%	75%
3	3-5	2.5%	1.8%	71%
3	2-4	1.6%	1.1%	67%
3	4-7	2.0%	1.2%	60%
3	3-6	2.6%	1.5%	56%
3	2-5	2.1%	1.1%	51%
3	3-7	1.7%	< 1%	42%
3	2-6	1.5%	< 1%	38%
3	-5	3.3%	1.0%	32%
3	-6	1.7%	< 1%	27%
2	-1	6%	< 1%	15%
2	-2	3.6%	< 1%	8%