Sunday, June 13, 2021

World Cup: Last match of round 2 in Asian qualifications

With one match to in round 2 of Asian World Cup qualifications, five countries have clinched a spot in round 3: Japan, Australia, Syria, Japan, and Oman. Another seven spots are open falling on the group winners and the five best runner-ups.

 

Group A
CountryMPPtsSimulated Pts2nd1stRound 33rd2nd1stRound 4PlayoffQatar
Syria72122.4 (21-24)< 1%100%100%16%7%2%16%4%10%
China71617.3 (16-19)100%< 1%97%14%6%2%14%4%8%
Philippines71012 (11-13)< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Maldives766.76 (6-7)< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Guam800 (0-0)< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%

Syria have clinched group win and China the 2nd spot. China's 16 points are likely sufficient to give them a spot in round 3.

Group B
CountryMPPtsSimulated Pts2nd1stRound 33rd2nd1stRound 4PlayoffQatar
Australia72123.1 (22-24)< 1%100%100%20%31%34%20%15%65%
Jordan71414.7 (14-15)48%< 1%19%3%2%< 1%3%1%2%
Kuwait71113.6 (14-14)52%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Nepal866 (6-6)< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Taiwan700.29 (0-0)< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%

Australia have clinched the group win. Jordan need to win against Australia to have a chance to advance as a runner-up.

Group C
CountryMPPtsSimulated Pts2nd1stRound 33rd2nd1stRound 4PlayoffQatar
Iraq71718 (17-18)52%48%99%26%26%17%26%15%44%
Iran71516.8 (16-18)48%52%70%11%21%33%11%8%53%
Bahrain71214.5 (15-15)< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Hong Kong755.39 (5-5)< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Cambodia811 (1-1)< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%

Iran and Iraq play a group final. Iraq are most likely adavncing also with a loss, already having 17 points.

Group D
CountryMPPtsSimulated Pts2nd1stRound 33rd2nd1stRound 4PlayoffQatar
Uzbekistan61517.6 (16-19)36%64%80%19%13%5%19%8%18%
Saudi Arabia61416.9 (15-18)64%36%93%23%18%8%23%11%26%
Palestine778.98 (8-10)< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Singapore877 (7-7)< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Yemen755.81 (5-6)< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%

Uzbekistan and Saudi Arabia play a group final. Saudi Arabia need to win to clinch the group win, and a draw is likely sufficient for both countries.

Group E
CountryMPPtsSimulated Pts2nd1stRound 33rd2nd1stRound 4PlayoffQatar
Qatar82222 (22-22)< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%
Oman71517.8 (18-18)100%< 1%100%18%9%3%18%6%12%
India767.56 (6-9)< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Afghanistan756.2 (5-8)< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Bangladesh722.12 (2-2)< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%

Oman have a clinched a spot as runner-up. Qatar only participated as qualification for Asian Cup, as they are qualified to the World Cup as hosts.


Group F
CountryMPPtsSimulated Pts2nd1stRound 33rd2nd1stRound 4PlayoffQatar
Japan72123.6 (24-24)< 1%100%100%15%30%47%15%12%77%
Tajikistan71012 (11-13)96%< 1%10%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Kyrgyzstan71010.3 (10-10)4%< 1%2%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Myanmar766.8 (6-7)< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Mongolia866 (6-6)< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%

Kyrgystan have a difficult match against already qualified Japan, while Tajikistan play Myanmar.


Group G
CountryMPPtsSimulated Pts2nd1stRound 33rd2nd1stRound 4PlayoffQatar
Vietnam71718.3 (17-20)41%59%97%9%3%< 1%9%2%4%
United Arab Emirates71516.5 (15-18)59%41%60%7%3%< 1%7%2%4%
Thailand7910.9 (10-12)< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Malaysia799.9 (9-10)< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Indonesia811 (1-1)< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%

UAE can clinch the group win with a win against Vietnam. A draw might suffice as a runner-up.


Group H
CountryMPPtsSimulated Pts2nd1stRound 33rd2nd1stRound 4PlayoffQatar
South Korea41015.1 (14-16)9%91%100%15%30%47%15%12%76%
Lebanon4710.3 (10-10)82%8%67%5%2%< 1%5%< 1%2%
Turkmenistan599.25 (9-9)9%< 1%6%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Sri Lanka500.082 (0-0)< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%

Lebanon probably need a point against South Korea in the last match. South Korea have clinched a spot also if they lose against Lebanon and lose the group win.

Below are a table with countries with a chance to advance to round 3. To compare runner-ups the matches against the fifth teams in each group have been excluded.

CountryGroupPositionMPPtsSimulated Mean Pts2nd1stRound 33rd2nd1stRound 4PlayoffPlayoff
Winner		Qatar
SyriaA151516.4 (15-18)< 1%100%100%16%7%2%16%4%2%12%
JapanF151517.6 (18-18)< 1%100%100%15%30%47%15%12%6%83%
AustraliaB151517.1 (16-18)< 1%100%100%20%31%34%20%15%7%73%
OmanE25912 (12-12)100%< 1%100%18%9%3%18%6%3%15%
South KoreaH141015.1 (14-16)9%91%100%15%30%47%15%12%6%82%
IraqC151112 (11-12)52%48%99%26%26%17%26%15%8%51%
ChinaA251011.3 (10-13)100%< 1%97%14%6%2%14%4%2%10%
VietnamG151112.3 (11-14)41%59%97%9%3%< 1%9%2%< 1%5%
Saudi ArabiaD241012.5 (11-14)64%36%93%23%18%8%23%11%5%31%
UzbekistanD14911.6 (10-13)36%64%80%19%13%5%19%8%4%22%
IranC25910.8 (10-12)48%52%70%11%21%33%11%8%4%58%
LebanonH34710.3 (10-10)82%8%67%5%2%< 1%5%< 1%< 1%2%
United Arab EmiratesG25910.5 (9-12)59%41%60%7%3%< 1%7%2%< 1%4%
JordanB2588.72 (8-9)48%< 1%19%3%2%< 1%3%1%< 1%3%
TajikistanF2547.77 (5-10)96%< 1%10%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
TurkmenistanH2599.25 (9-9)9%< 1%6%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
KyrgyzstanF3575.47 (4-7)4%< 1%2%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
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