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| Group C | MP | GD | Pts | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | 1st | R16 | QF | Semi | Final | Champ | ||
| Netherlands | 1 | 3 | - | 2 | 3 | < 1% | 2% | 14% | 83% | 99% | 60% | 33% | 14% | 6% |
| Austria | 1 | 3 | - | 1 | 3 | 2% | 44% | 41% | 13% | 89% | 24% | 7% | 2% | < 1% |
| Ukraine | 1 | 2 | - | 3 | 0 | 15% | 39% | 43% | 3% | 74% | 23% | 8% | 2% | < 1% |
| North Macedonia | 1 | 1 | - | 3 | 0 | 83% | 15% | 2% | < 1% | 11% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
Netherlands in pole position. The match between Austria and Ukraine will be key.
| Group D | MP | GD | Pts | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | 1st | R16 | QF | Semi | Final | Champ | ||
| England | 1 | 1 | - | 0 | 3 | < 1% | 2% | 12% | 85% | 99% | 50% | 26% | 16% | 9% |
| Czechia | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 34% | 32% | 26% | 8% | 53% | 19% | 5% | 1% | < 1% |
| Scotland | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 38% | 32% | 25% | 5% | 48% | 13% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Croatia | 1 | 0 | - | 1 | 0 | 27% | 33% | 38% | 2% | 61% | 27% | 9% | 3% | < 1% |
England won against Croatia, but Croatia still have good chances to advance to R16
Predictions of likely brackets.
| Last 16 | Quarter-finals | Semi-finals | Final | Champions | ||||
Belgium (70%) Denmark (19%) | ||||||||
Belgium (52%) Denmark (11%) Portugal (6%) | ||||||||
Portugal (12%) Germany (12%) France (10%) Poland (10%) Sweden (9%) | ||||||||
Belgium (36%) Italy (29%) Denmark (6%) Ukraine (4%) | ||||||||
Italy (81%) Switzerland (10%) | ||||||||
Italy (59%) Ukraine (13%) Austria (10%) | ||||||||
Ukraine (43%) Austria (41%) | ||||||||
Belgium (25%) Italy (17%) France (15%) Portugal (9%) | ||||||||
France (37%) Germany (31%) Portugal (27%) | ||||||||
France (29%) Portugal (20%) Germany (19%) Denmark (9%) | ||||||||
Denmark (19%) Austria (17%) Ukraine (13%) Finland (12%) Russia (10%) | ||||||||
France (22%) Portugal (14%) Germany (14%) Spain (7%) Sweden (7%) | ||||||||
Croatia (38%) Czechia (26%) Scotland (25%) | ||||||||
Sweden (21%) Croatia (19%) Poland (17%) Spain (13%) Czechia (11%) | ||||||||
Sweden (38%) Poland (32%) Spain (18%) | ||||||||
Belgium (21%) France (15%) Spain (12%) Italy (10%) England (9%) | ||||||||
Spain (76%) Sweden (12%) | ||||||||
Spain (56%) Denmark (7%) Sweden (6%) | ||||||||
Austria (19%) Ukraine (14%) Denmark (12%) Finland (8%) Croatia (7%) | ||||||||
Spain (31%) England (22%) France (13%) Portugal (10%) | ||||||||
England (85%) | ||||||||
England (41%) France (20%) Portugal (17%) Germany (15%) | ||||||||
Germany (31%) France (30%) Portugal (29%) | ||||||||
Spain (19%) England (15%) Netherlands (12%) France (10%) Belgium (8%) | ||||||||
Netherlands (83%) Austria (13%) | ||||||||
Netherlands (52%) Portugal (5%) Austria (5%) | ||||||||
Poland (13%) Sweden (12%) Croatia (12%) Czechia (11%) Scotland (10%) | ||||||||
Netherlands (29%) Belgium (13%) Denmark (9%) Switzerland (8%) | ||||||||
Switzerland (35%) Wales (30%) Turkey (22%) | ||||||||
Belgium (18%) Switzerland (18%) Denmark (15%) Wales (14%) Finland (11%) | ||||||||
Finland (36%) Denmark (25%) Belgium (24%) Russia (15%) |
Below are the chances for "third team" to advance to R16. Three points and 3-6 goal difference is required to have more than 50% chance.
| Pts | GD | Probability | Last 16 | Chance |
| 4 | - | 28% | 28% | 99.2% |
| 3 | 0 | 8% | 7% | 92% |
| 3 | 4-5 | 2.7% | 2.3% | 84% |
| 3 | 3-4 | 2.4% | 1.9% | 82% |
| 3 | 5-7 | 1.6% | 1.2% | 76% |
| 3 | 4-6 | 2.5% | 1.8% | 73% |
| 3 | 3-5 | 2.5% | 1.7% | 68% |
| 3 | 2-4 | 1.5% | < 1% | 65% |
| 3 | 4-7 | 2.1% | 1.2% | 57% |
| 3 | 3-6 | 2.6% | 1.3% | 52% |
| 3 | 2-5 | 1.9% | < 1% | 47% |
| 3 | 3-7 | 1.7% | < 1% | 38% |
| 3 | -5 | 3.1% | < 1% | 29% |
| 3 | -6 | 1.6% | < 1% | 26% |
| 2 | -1 | 6% | < 1% | 13% |
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