Euro: Round of 16

Probabilities for countries to reach the different rounds. Countries are sorted with respect to their chance to win the championship.

Country	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
Belgium	100%	59%	40%	24%	16%
France	100%	73%	45%	24%	16%
England	100%	55%	37%	25%	13%
Spain	100%	73%	37%	18%	11%
Italy	100%	77%	32%	15%	9%
Denmark	100%	65%	38%	20%	8%
Netherlands	100%	72%	38%	19%	7%
Portugal	100%	41%	24%	12%	7%
Germany	100%	45%	28%	14%	5%
Sweden	100%	53%	19%	8%	2%
Wales	100%	35%	15%	6%	2%
Ukraine	100%	47%	16%	6%	2%
Switzerland	100%	27%	10%	3%	1%
Croatia	100%	27%	8%	2%	< 1%
Czechia	100%	28%	9%	3%	< 1%
Austria	100%	23%	4%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Probabilities for the bracket

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Belgium (100%)
		Belgium (59%) Portugal (41%)
Portugal (100%)
				Belgium (40%) Italy (32%) Portugal (24%)
Italy (100%)
		Italy (77%) Austria (23%)
Austria (100%)
						France (24%) Belgium (24%) Spain (18%) Italy (15%)
France (100%)
		France (73%) Switzerland (27%)
Switzerland (100%)
				France (45%) Spain (37%) Switzerland (10%)
Croatia (100%)
		Spain (73%) Croatia (27%)
Spain (100%)
								Belgium (16%) France (16%) England (13%) Spain (11%) Italy (9%)
Sweden (100%)
		Sweden (53%) Ukraine (47%)
Ukraine (100%)
				England (37%) Germany (28%) Sweden (19%)
England (100%)
		England (55%) Germany (45%)
Germany (100%)
						England (25%) Denmark (20%) Netherlands (19%) Germany (14%)
Netherlands (100%)
		Netherlands (72%) Czechia (28%)
Czechia (100%)
				Netherlands (38%) Denmark (38%) Wales (15%)
Wales (100%)
		Denmark (65%) Wales (35%)
Denmark (100%)