Euro: Prediction group E and F

Sweden have clinched R16. They clinch group win if they win against Poland. If they draw, they win the group if Spain draw or if Spain win with one goal and score less goals than Sweden; otherwise they are 2nd. If Sweden lose against Poland, they are third, if Spain or Slovakia win their match; if Spain and Slovakia draw Sweden are 2nd if they lose with one goal and score at least one goal.

Group E	MP	GD			Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
Spain	2	1	-	1	2	7%	9%	36%	48%	91%	66%	37%	20%	11%
Sweden	2	1	-	0	4	< 1%	34%	21%	45%	100%	42%	14%	5%	1%
Slovakia	2	2	-	2	3	29%	56%	12%	4%	18%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Poland	2	2	-	3	1	64%	1%	31%	3%	34%	16%	5%	1%	< 1%

Slovakia clinch R16 if they take a point against Spain. If they lose with more than two goals they are out; if they lose with worse than 2-3 they need to rely on results in Group F.

Slovakia - Spain
Home	Draw	0-1	1-2	2-3	-2	-3	-4
100%	100%	6%	6%	36%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	Swe - Pol
100%	100%	9%	8%	55%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	19%	Home
100%	100%	9%	9%	54%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	19%	Draw
100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	16%	Away

Spain clinch R16 if they win against Slovakia. They clinch R16 if they draw and Sweden take point against Poland. They win the group if they win their match and Sweden and Poland draw.

Slovakia - Spain
Home	Draw	Away
< 1%	65%	100%	Swe - Pol
< 1%	100%	100%	95%	Home
< 1%	100%	100%	95%	Draw
< 1%	< 1%	100%	84%	Away

Poland clinch R16 if they win against Sweden, which most likely means they finish 2nd. If they draw or lose they are out.

Sweden - Poland
Home	Draw	Away
< 1%	< 1%	100%	Slo - Spa
< 1%	< 1%	100%	34%	Home
< 1%	< 1%	100%	35%	Draw
< 1%	< 1%	100%	34%	Away

France have clinched R16. They win the group if they win against Portugal - or if they draw while Germany fail winning against Hungary.

Group F	MP	GD			Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
France	2	2	-	1	4	< 1%	24%	26%	51%	100%	66%	47%	27%	17%
Germany	2	4	-	3	3	7%	11%	42%	39%	92%	45%	27%	11%	4%
Portugal	2	5	-	4	3	6%	58%	26%	10%	89%	47%	30%	16%	9%
Hungary	2	1	-	4	1	87%	6%	7%	< 1%	13%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Germany clinch R16 if they take a point against Hungary. If they lose and France beat Portugal they finish third and goal difference and the results in group E will decide.  

Germany - Hungary
Home	Draw	-1	0-2	1-3	-3	-4
100%	100%	43%	34%	43%	20%	< 1%	Por - Fra
100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	87%	Home
100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	87%	Draw
100%	100%	100%	78%	100%	46%	< 1%	99.0%	Away

Portugal clinch R16 if they take a point against France or if they lose with less than three goals and Germany take a point against Hungary. If they lose with three goals it depends on the results in Group E.

Portugal - France
Home	Draw	-1	-2	-3	-4
100%	100%	87%	87%	41%	< 1%	Ger - Hun
100%	100%	100%	100%	47%	< 1%	94%	Home
100%	100%	100%	100%	47%	< 1%	94%	Draw
100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	57%	Away

Hungary clinch R16 if they beat Germany.

Germany - Hungary
Home	Draw	Away
< 1%	< 1%	100%	Por - Fra
< 1%	< 1%	100%	13%	Home
< 1%	< 1%	100%	13%	Draw
< 1%	< 1%	100%	13%	Away

Currently you are safe as a third team if you have 3 points and a goal difference better than 4-5. Finland have goal difference 1-3 and need that both thirds in group E and F finish with worse score. That happens if

• Sweden take a point and Spain thrash Slovakia with three goals or more or
• Sweden take a point and Slovakia beat Spain

and

• France win with four goals against Portugal and Germany take a point or
• Hungary win with four goals against Germany and France win against Portugal

Ukraine have much better chances, They need that one of the thirds finish with goal difference worse than 4-5

• Sweden take a point against Poland and Slovakia win or
• Sweden take a point and Spain win with 1-0, 2-1 or with more than one goal
  

or

• France win with three goals against Portugal and Germany take a point or
• Hungary win with three goals against Germany and France win against Portugal (if Hungary win with 2-0, Germany and Ukraine are tied and fair play decides)
  

 

Pts	GD	Probability	Last 16	Chance
3	4-5	17%	10%	61%
3	3-4	< 1%	< 1%	9%
3	2-3	< 1%	< 1%	9%
3	10-12	< 1%	< 1%	50%
3	9-11	< 1%	< 1%	50%
3	8-10	< 1%	< 1%	46%
3	7-9	< 1%	< 1%	48%
3	6-8	< 1%	< 1%	47%
3	5-7	< 1%	< 1%	44%
3	4-6	< 1%	< 1%	8%
3	3-5	< 1%	< 1%	2.9%
3	2-4	1.1%	< 1%	2.8%
3	1-3	17%	< 1%	< 1%

The updated probabilities for the bracket

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Belgium (100%)
		Belgium (68%) Portugal (13%)
Sweden (34%) Portugal (32%) France (14%)
				Belgium (46%) Italy (33%) Portugal (8%)
Italy (100%)
		Italy (78%) Austria (22%)
Austria (100%)
						Belgium (30%) Italy (18%) France (17%) Spain (8%)
France (51%) Germany (39%)
		France (37%) Switzerland (34%) Germany (22%)
Switzerland (99%)
				France (27%) Switzerland (17%) Germany (15%) Spain (14%)
Croatia (100%)
		Croatia (45%) Spain (27%) Poland (15%)
Spain (36%) Poland (31%) Sweden (21%)
								Belgium (19%) France (17%) Spain (11%) England (11%) Italy (9%)
Spain (48%) Sweden (45%)
		Spain (37%) Sweden (24%) Ukraine (24%)
Ukraine (60%) Czechia (39%)
				England (29%) Spain (21%) France (11%) Germany (10%)
England (100%)
		England (49%) Germany (19%) France (16%)
Germany (42%) Portugal (26%) France (26%)
						England (19%) Denmark (16%) Netherlands (14%) Spain (12%) France (10%)
Netherlands (100%)
		Netherlands (60%) Czechia (18%) Portugal (13%)
Czechia (61%) Portugal (21%) France (10%)
				Denmark (35%) Netherlands (32%) Wales (14%)
Wales (100%)
		Denmark (65%) Wales (35%)
Denmark (100%)