Euro: Predictions of Group D

 

Group D	MP	GD			Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
England	2	1	-	0	4	< 1%	2%	27%	71%	100%	52%	29%	17%	10%
Czechia	2	3	-	1	4	< 1%	23%	49%	29%	100%	32%	9%	2%	< 1%
Croatia	2	1	-	2	1	31%	47%	23%	< 1%	45%	18%	6%	2%	< 1%
Scotland	2	0	-	2	1	69%	29%	2%	< 1%	31%	6%	1%	< 1%	< 1%

England clinch group win if they beat Czechia. They clinch 2nd spot if they draw or Croatia take a point against Scotland.

Czechia clinch group win if they take a point against England. The clinch 2nd spot if they draw or Scotland take a point against Croatia.

Croatia reach R16 if (and only if) they win against Scotland. The clinch the 2nd spot and a R16 match-up against runner-up in group E, if they beat Scotland, England beat Czechia and they catch up 3 goal-deficit in goal difference.

Scotland reach R16 if (and only if) they win against Croatia. They clinch the 2nd spot if they win and Czechia beat England and they catch up 3-goal deficit in goal difference.

Ukraine clinch R16 if Scotland and Croatia draw.

Probabilities for bracket

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Belgium (100%)
		Belgium (70%) Portugal (10%)
Sweden (34%) Portugal (24%) France (10%) Switzerland (9%)
				Belgium (47%) Italy (33%) Portugal (6%)
Italy (100%)
		Italy (78%) Austria (22%)
Austria (100%)
						Belgium (31%) Italy (18%) France (16%) Spain (8%)
France (51%) Germany (39%)
		France (37%) Switzerland (31%) Germany (22%)
Switzerland (91%)
				France (26%) Switzerland (16%) Germany (15%) Spain (14%)
Czechia (49%) England (27%) Croatia (23%)
		Spain (26%) Czechia (18%) England (16%) Poland (15%)
Spain (36%) Poland (31%) Sweden (21%)
								Belgium (20%) France (17%) Spain (11%) England (10%) Italy (9%)
Spain (48%) Sweden (45%)
		Spain (37%) Sweden (25%) Ukraine (24%)
Ukraine (61%) Scotland (11%) Finland (9%)
				Spain (21%) England (21%) France (12%) Germany (12%) Portugal (11%)
England (71%) Czechia (29%)
		England (35%) Germany (22%) France (17%) Portugal (16%)
Germany (42%) Portugal (26%) France (26%)
						Denmark (16%) Netherlands (14%) England (14%) Spain (12%) Portugal (12%)
Netherlands (100%)
		Netherlands (56%) Portugal (18%) France (9%)
Portugal (30%) Scotland (18%) Croatia (14%) Czechia (14%)
				Denmark (34%) Netherlands (30%) Wales (13%)
Wales (100%)
		Denmark (65%) Wales (35%)
Denmark (100%)