Monday, June 21, 2021

Euro: Denmark and Austria clinch knockout stage


Group BMPGDPts4th3rd2nd1stR16QFSemiFinalChamp
Belgium37-19< 1%< 1%< 1%100%100%70%47%31%20%
Denmark35-43< 1%< 1%100%< 1%100%65%34%16%7%
Finland31-33< 1%100%< 1%< 1%9%3%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Russia32-73100%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%

Belgium won Group B and are playing the 3rd from group E or F. Denmark won eventually the second spot and will face Wales in knockout stage. Finland are currently the third third after three completed groups and need to beat two of thirds in groups D-F. Things that would help them are:

  • Croatia and Scotland draw
  • Sweden take point against Poland
  • Slovakia and Spain do not draw

 


Group CMPGDPts4th3rd2nd1stR16QFSemiFinalChamp
Netherlands38-29< 1%< 1%< 1%100%100%56%30%14%6%
Austria34-36< 1%< 1%100%< 1%100%22%4%1%< 1%
Ukraine34-53< 1%100%< 1%< 1%70%26%9%3%< 1%
North Macedonia32-80100%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%

Holland won the group and will likely play a third from group D or F. Austria grabbed the second spot and will face Italy. Ukraine is currently the second third and need to beat one of the thirds in group D-F. Things that would help them are:

  • Ukraine take point against Poland
  • Scotland and Croatia draw
  • Slovakia win or Spain win with two goals

 

Currently 3 points and goal difference better than 4-5 guarantees play in knockout stage. Goal difference worse than 1-3 (as Finland has) most likely means you have no chance advancing as a third.

PtsGDProbabilityLast 16Chance
34-517%12%71%
33-4< 1%< 1%30%
32-3< 1%< 1%30%
37-9< 1%< 1%58%
36-8< 1%< 1%59%
35-7< 1%< 1%58%
34-6< 1%< 1%30%
33-5< 1%< 1%26%
32-41.1%< 1%26%
31-317%1.5%9%
36-9< 1%< 1%8%
35-8< 1%< 1%8%
33-6< 1%< 1%< 1%
32-51.2%< 1%< 1%
35-9< 1%< 1%5%

 

Updated probabilities for the bracket

Last 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Champions
Belgium (100%)



Belgium (70%)
Portugal (10%)

Sweden (34%)
Portugal (24%)
France (10%)
Switzerland (9%)







Belgium (47%)
Italy (33%)
Portugal (6%)

Italy (100%)







Italy (78%)
Austria (22%)



Austria (100%)











Belgium (31%)
Italy (18%)
France (16%)
Spain (8%)

France (51%)
Germany (39%)









France (37%)
Switzerland (31%)
Germany (22%)





Switzerland (91%)











France (26%)
Switzerland (16%)
Germany (15%)
Spain (14%)



Czechia (49%)
England (27%)
Croatia (23%)









Spain (26%)
Czechia (18%)
England (16%)
Poland (15%)





Spain (36%)
Poland (31%)
Sweden (21%)















Belgium (20%)
France (17%)
Spain (11%)
England (10%)
Italy (9%)
Spain (48%)
Sweden (45%)









Spain (37%)
Sweden (25%)
Ukraine (24%)





Ukraine (61%)
Scotland (11%)
Finland (9%)











Spain (21%)
England (21%)
France (12%)
Germany (12%)
Portugal (11%)



England (71%)
Czechia (29%)









England (35%)
Germany (22%)
France (17%)
Portugal (16%)





Germany (42%)
Portugal (26%)
France (26%)













Denmark (16%)
Netherlands (14%)
England (14%)
Spain (12%)
Portugal (12%)

Netherlands (100%)







Netherlands (56%)
Portugal (18%)
France (9%)



Portugal (30%)
Scotland (18%)
Croatia (14%)
Czechia (14%)









Denmark (34%)
Netherlands (30%)
Wales (13%)

Wales (100%)





Denmark (65%)
Wales (35%)

Denmark (100%)

 

 

 

 

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