Saturday, June 19, 2021

Euro: Sweden, Czechia, and England virtually through

England and Czechia have almost clinched spots in R16.


Group DMPGDPts4th3rd2nd1stR16QFSemiFinalChamp
England21-04< 1%2%27%71%100%50%26%16%9%
Czechia23-14< 1%23%49%29%100%32%9%2%< 1%
Croatia21-2131%47%23%< 1%46%19%6%2%< 1%
Scotland20-2169%29%2%< 1%31%6%1%< 1%< 1%

Czechia can only miss knockout stage if they lose against England Croatia win against Scotland.
Czechia - England
HomeDraw-1-2-3-4
100%100%100%99.99%99.8%99.6%Cro - Sco
100%100%100%99.98%99.6%99.2%99.79%Home
100%100%100%100%100%100%100%Draw
100%100%100%100%100%100%100%Away


England can only miss R16 if they lose against Czechia and Scotland beat Croatia.
Czechia - England
HomeDrawAway
99.93%100%100%Cro - Sco
100%100%100%100%Home
100%100%100%100%Draw
99.8%100%100%99.97%Away


Croatia most likely clinch R16 with a win against Scotland. In theory a draw might suffice, but it's very unlikely (1.9%).
Croatia - Scotland
HomeDrawAway
99.98%1.9%< 1%Cze - Eng
99.96%2.1%< 1%46%Home
99.97%1.8%< 1%46%Draw
99.98%1.9%< 1%46%Away


Scotland need to beat Scotland to have a chance. A win will most likely suffice, and more so if they win with two goals.
Croatia - Scotland
HomeDraw-1-2-3-4
< 1%< 1%99.5%99.92%100%100%Cze - Eng
< 1%< 1%99.6%100%100%100%31%Home
< 1%< 1%99.4%99.9%100%100%31%Draw
< 1%< 1%99.5%99.9%100%100%31%Away


Sweden can still miss R16 in theory but very unlikely. Poland need a point against Spain or they are out. Slovakia would practically clinch R16 with a point against Spain. Even with a loss they have good chances, as long as they keep down the numbers. Spain favorites to win the group.

Group EMPGDPts4th3rd2nd1stR16QFSemiFinalChamp
Spain10-013%7%20%71%97%72%40%24%12%
Sweden21-04< 1%10%69%22%100%50%16%5%2%
Poland11-2087%1%7%4%12%6%2%< 1%< 1%
Slovakia22-2310%82%4%3%47%8%2%< 1%< 1%

 

Updated bracket

Last 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Champions
Belgium (93%)



Belgium (68%)
Germany (9%)

Germany (26%)
Slovakia (17%)
Portugal (17%)
Switzerland (8%)







Belgium (47%)
Italy (28%)
Ukraine (5%)

Italy (85%)







Italy (63%)
Ukraine (21%)
Wales (8%)



Ukraine (69%)
Austria (31%)











Belgium (30%)
France (19%)
Italy (15%)
Portugal (12%)

France (54%)
Portugal (38%)









France (42%)
Portugal (28%)
Switzerland (7%)





Austria (24%)
Switzerland (23%)
Finland (19%)
Ukraine (10%)











France (31%)
Portugal (19%)
Sweden (11%)
England (8%)



Czechia (49%)
England (27%)
Croatia (23%)









Sweden (35%)
Czechia (19%)
England (17%)
Spain (14%)





Sweden (69%)
Spain (20%)















Belgium (21%)
France (18%)
Spain (12%)
Portugal (11%)
Italy (9%)
Spain (71%)
Sweden (22%)









Spain (55%)
Sweden (12%)
Austria (9%)





Austria (34%)
Ukraine (15%)
Finland (13%)
Scotland (9%)











Spain (30%)
England (18%)
France (15%)
Portugal (14%)



England (71%)
Czechia (29%)









England (33%)
France (23%)
Portugal (22%)
Germany (14%)





Portugal (35%)
France (34%)
Germany (28%)













Spain (19%)
Netherlands (16%)
England (12%)
France (11%)
Portugal (10%)

Netherlands (100%)







Netherlands (67%)
Germany (5%)



Slovakia (22%)
Scotland (17%)
Croatia (14%)
Czechia (14%)
Germany (11%)









Netherlands (37%)
Denmark (20%)
Wales (14%)
Italy (6%)

Wales (76%)
Italy (15%)





Denmark (35%)
Wales (34%)
Italy (9%)

Denmark (57%)
Russia (24%)
Finland (11%)


PtsGDProbabilityLast 16Chance
4-34%34%99.41%
34-53.9%3.4%88%
33-43.8%3.1%82%
32-33.0%2.2%73%
34-62.4%1.8%73%
33-53.3%2.1%65%
32-43.0%1.6%54%
31-31.6%< 1%49%
34-71.3%< 1%53%
33-63.0%1.3%44%
32-54.6%1.6%34%
31-41.8%< 1%30%
33-71.5%< 1%24%
32-63.0%< 1%18%
3-52.3%< 1%13%
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