Copa: Predictions after matchday 2

Argentina and Chile are through to quarterfinals.

Country	5th	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Quarterfinal	Semifinal	Finalist	Champion
Brazil	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	93%	100%	88%	75%	62%
Argentina	< 1%	3%	10%	25%	62%	100%	68%	42%	14%
Uruguay	3%	22%	31%	30%	14%	97%	52%	23%	9%
Colombia	< 1%	12%	28%	53%	6%	99%	52%	16%	5%
Chile	< 1%	29%	31%	29%	12%	100%	36%	11%	3%
Ecuador	34%	31%	24%	12%	< 1%	66%	27%	10%	2%
Venezuela	29%	30%	28%	13%	< 1%	71%	27%	9%	2%
Paraguay	1%	42%	28%	16%	12%	99%	27%	7%	1%
Peru	37%	28%	19%	16%	< 1%	63%	23%	7%	1%
Bolivia	95%	4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Brazil (93%)
		Brazil (82%) Uruguay (5%)
Paraguay (42%) Chile (29%) Uruguay (22%)
				Brazil (75%) Uruguay (7%)
Colombia (53%) Peru (16%) Venezuela (13%)
		Colombia (29%) Uruguay (18%) Chile (13%) Paraguay (10%)
Uruguay (31%) Chile (31%) Paraguay (28%)
						Brazil (62%) Argentina (14%) Uruguay (9%)
Uruguay (30%) Chile (29%) Argentina (25%) Paraguay (16%)
		Uruguay (19%) Argentina (17%) Colombia (14%) Chile (14%) Venezuela (11%)
Venezuela (28%) Colombia (28%) Ecuador (24%) Peru (19%)
				Argentina (40%) Uruguay (15%) Colombia (10%) Ecuador (9%)
Argentina (62%) Uruguay (14%) Paraguay (12%)
		Argentina (43%) Ecuador (11%) Venezuela (10%)
Ecuador (31%) Venezuela (30%) Peru (28%)

Important matches
Mutual Information
1.94029	Ecuador 3% if they draw (or win) against Peru; otherwise 1%
1.72756	Ecuador 3% if they draw (or win) against Venezuela; otherwise 1%
1.67881	Ecuador 3% if they win against Venezuela; otherwise 1%
1.52393	Ecuador 3% if they win against Peru; otherwise 2%
1.38673	Peru 2% if they draw (or win) against Venezuela; otherwise 0.8%
1.3438	Peru 2% if they win against Venezuela; otherwise 1%
1.28799	Venezuela 2% if they draw (or win) against Peru; otherwise 1%
1.19221	Venezuela 2% if they draw (or win) against Ecuador; otherwise 1%
1.13098	Peru 2% if they draw (or win) against Ecuador; otherwise 0.8%
1.10464	Venezuela 2% if they win against Ecuador; otherwise 1%