Sunday, June 20, 2021

Euro: Predictions group E and F

 


Group EMPGDPts4th3rd2nd1stR16QFSemiFinalChamp
Spain21-126%9%36%48%90%67%37%21%11%
Sweden21-04< 1%34%21%45%99%46%16%6%2%
Slovakia22-2329%56%12%3%35%8%1%< 1%< 1%
Poland22-3165%1%31%3%34%16%5%1%< 1%

Sweden clinch group win if they win, top 2 if they at least take a point, and if they lose are most likely third with good chances to advance.
Sweden - Poland
HomeDraw-1-2-3-4
100%100%99.5%97.9%95%94%Slo - Spa
100%100%99.6%98%94%95%99.4%Home
100%100%99.5%98%94%93%99.3%Draw
100%100%99.5%97.9%95%94%99.37%Away


Slovakia clinch R16 with a win over Spain. With a draw they are most likely though and with a loss they have chances as third unless Poland beat Sweden.
Slovakia - Spain
HomeDraw0-11-22-30-21-30-31-4-4
100%99.99%43%45%49%30%32%16%21%9%Swe - Pol
100%100%65%69%74%45%48%24%31%14%46%Home
100%100%65%69%74%45%48%24%32%14%45%Draw
100%99.9%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%15%Away


Spain need at least a draw against Slovakia. If Poland beat Sweden, Spain need to beat Slovakia.
Slovakia - Spain
+4+3+21-02-1DrawAway
< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%58%100%Swe - Pol
< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%1%88%100%94%Home
< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%88%100%93%Draw
< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%85%Away


Poland clinch R16 if they beat Sweden. Otherwise their chances are only mathematical and include among other things that Slovakia beat Spain.
Sweden - Poland
HomeDrawAway
< 1%< 1%100%Slo - Spa
< 1%4%100%35%Home
< 1%< 1%100%34%Draw
< 1%< 1%100%34%Away



Group FMPGDPts4th3rd2nd1stR16QFSemiFinalChamp
France22-14< 1%24%26%51%100%70%49%29%18%
Germany24-337%11%42%39%92%51%30%13%5%
Portugal25-436%59%26%10%89%50%32%18%9%
Hungary21-4187%6%7%< 1%13%3%1%< 1%< 1%

France are most likely through regardless of results. They clinch R16 if they take a point against Portugal or Germany and Hungary draw.
Portugal - France
+4+3+2+1DrawAway
97%97.7%99.3%99.94%100%100%Ger - Hun
96%97%99.1%99.92%100%100%99.73%Home
100%100%100%100%100%100%100%Draw
96%98%99.6%100%100%100%99.8%Away


Germany
Germany - Hungary
HomeDraw-1-2-3-4
100%100%41%38%31%22%Por - Fra
100%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%87%Home
100%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%87%Draw
100%100%95%88%70%50%98.8%Away



Portugal need a point against France to clinch R16. They still have good chances as third as long as Germany take point against Hungary.

Portugal - France
HomeDraw-1-2-3-4
100%100%82%79%64%46%Ger - Hun
100%100%95%91%73%53%94%Home
100%100%94%91%73%53%94%Draw
100%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%57%Away


Hungary need to beat Germany to have a chance on R16. If they win and France beat Portugal, they clinch R16 (see details in table below).
Germany - Hungary
HomeDraw-1-2-3-4
< 1%< 1%98.5%99.7%100%100%Por - Fra
< 1%< 1%97.6%99.7%100%100%13%Home
< 1%< 1%97%99.3%100%100%13%Draw
< 1%< 1%100%100%100%100%13%Away



Updated probabilities for the bracket:

Last 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Champions
Belgium (93%)



Belgium (63%)
Portugal (16%)
France (8%)

Portugal (36%)
France (16%)
Sweden (15%)
Germany (7%)







Belgium (43%)
Italy (28%)
Portugal (10%)

Italy (85%)







Italy (63%)
Ukraine (21%)
Wales (8%)



Ukraine (69%)
Austria (31%)











Belgium (28%)
France (19%)
Italy (15%)
Portugal (8%)

France (51%)
Germany (39%)









France (40%)
Germany (25%)
Switzerland (9%)
Portugal (7%)





Switzerland (27%)
Finland (21%)
Austria (19%)
Denmark (11%)











France (28%)
Germany (17%)
Spain (14%)
England (8%)



Czechia (49%)
England (27%)
Croatia (23%)









Spain (26%)
Czechia (18%)
England (16%)
Poland (15%)





Spain (36%)
Poland (31%)
Sweden (21%)















Belgium (20%)
France (18%)
Spain (11%)
England (10%)
Italy (9%)
Spain (48%)
Sweden (45%)









Spain (38%)
Sweden (26%)
Austria (11%)
Ukraine (5%)





Austria (34%)
Ukraine (14%)
Scotland (14%)
Croatia (11%)











Spain (21%)
England (21%)
France (12%)
Germany (12%)
Portugal (11%)



England (71%)
Czechia (29%)









England (35%)
Germany (22%)
France (18%)
Portugal (16%)





Germany (42%)
Portugal (26%)
France (26%)













Netherlands (16%)
England (14%)
Spain (14%)
France (10%)
Portugal (10%)

Netherlands (100%)







Netherlands (62%)
Portugal (11%)
Sweden (6%)



Sweden (18%)
Portugal (18%)
Slovakia (14%)
Scotland (13%)
Croatia (10%)









Netherlands (34%)
Denmark (19%)
Wales (13%)
Portugal (7%)

Wales (76%)
Italy (15%)





Denmark (36%)
Wales (34%)
Italy (9%)

Denmark (57%)
Russia (24%)
Finland (11%)

Probabilityies and chances for a third team to advance to R16. Currently 3 points and 3-5 is needed to advance.

PtsGDProbabilityLast 16Chance
4-27%6%96.6%
306%5%92%
35-63.0%2.5%84%
34-53.3%2.6%78%
33-42.9%2.1%71%
32-32.3%1.4%60%
35-71.4%< 1%68%
34-62.1%1.3%62%
33-52.6%1.4%54%
32-42.3%< 1%42%
31-31.5%< 1%36%
33-62.5%< 1%34%
32-53.9%< 1%25%
31-41.7%< 1%22%
32-62.5%< 1%12%


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