Euro: Predictions of group A

Italy clinch group win if they avoid losing against Wales.

Group A	MP	GD			Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
Italy	2	6	-	0	6	< 1%	< 1%	15%	85%	100%	72%	34%	18%	9%
Wales	2	3	-	1	4	< 1%	9%	76%	15%	100%	45%	17%	6%	2%
Switzerland	2	1	-	4	1	30%	61%	9%	< 1%	46%	18%	8%	3%	1%
Turkey	2	0	-	5	0	70%	30%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Wales win the group if the beat Italy, clinch 2nd spot if they draw. They become 3rd if they lose against Italy, Switzerland win against Turkey and catch up five goals in goal difference. This happens in 9% of simulations, but in a majority of those 4 points is enough advance as one of the best thirds.

Italy - Wales
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	Away
99.1%	99.8%	>99.99%	100%	100%	100%	Swi - Tur
98.1%	99.6%	>99.99%	100%	100%	100%	99.62%	Home
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	Draw
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	Away

Switzerland need three more points to have a chance to advance as a third. The clinch the 2nd spot if they win, Italy win and they catch up a total of five goals.

Switzerland - Turkey
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	Away
100%	>99.99%	98.9%	97.0%	< 1%	< 1%	Ita - Wal
100%	100%	99.1%	97.1%	< 1%	< 1%	46%	Home
100%	100%	98.7%	96.8%	< 1%	< 1%	46%	Draw
100%	>99.99%	98.8%	96.9%	< 1%	< 1%	46%	Away

Turkey need to win against Switzerland to have a chance to advance as a best third team. Every goal is important (as detailed below) and a one-goal win will likely not be sufficient. But if Turkey win they will need to wait for the results in the other groups.

Switzerland - Turkey
Home	Draw	0-1	1-2	2-3	0-2	1-3	0-3	1-4	-4
< 1%	< 1%	8%	10%	12%	24%	30%	50%	55%	84%	Ita - Wal
< 1%	< 1%	8%	10%	12%	24%	30%	51%	55%	84%	7%	Home
< 1%	< 1%	7%	10%	12%	24%	29%	49%	55%	84%	7%	Draw
< 1%	< 1%	8%	10%	12%	24%	29%	50%	54%	85%	7%	Away