Euro: Wales through to knockout stage

 

Wales clinch 2nd spot and Switzerland have very good chances (98.7%), but need to rely on results in other groups. They clinch R16 if two of the following occur:

• Ukraine and Austria do not draw
• Sweden take point against Poland
• France win against Portugal
• Croatia draw against Scotland
• Belgium beat Finland or Denmark beat Russia
  

Group A	MP	GD			Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
Italy	3	7	-	0	9	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	74%	33%	18%	10%
Wales	3	3	-	2	4	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	44%	16%	5%	2%
Switzerland	3	4	-	5	4	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	36%	17%	6%	2%
Turkey	3	1	-	8	0	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Here are the updated chances to advance as a third team given different scores.

Pts	GD	Probability	Last 16	Chance
4	4-5	17%	17%	98.7%
4	-2	2.8%	2.6%	91%
3	0	6%	4.7%	84%
3	6-7	1.3%	1.0%	78%
3	5-6	2.9%	2.1%	70%
3	4-5	3.3%	2.0%	61%
3	3-4	2.9%	1.5%	50%
3	2-3	2.3%	< 1%	38%
3	5-7	1.4%	< 1%	47%
3	4-6	1.9%	< 1%	39%
3	3-5	2.3%	< 1%	32%
3	2-4	2.3%	< 1%	20%
3	3-6	1.9%	< 1%	16%
3	2-5	3.2%	< 1%	9%
3	-4	3.6%	< 1%	6%

 

The updated probabilities for the bracket

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Belgium (93%)
		Belgium (68%) Portugal (8%)
Sweden (30%) Portugal (18%) Switzerland (11%) Slovakia (10%)
				Belgium (46%) Italy (33%) Ukraine (5%)
Italy (100%)
		Italy (74%) Ukraine (19%)
Ukraine (69%) Austria (31%)
						Belgium (30%) Italy (18%) France (17%) Spain (8%)
France (51%) Germany (39%)
		France (38%) Switzerland (25%) Germany (23%) Portugal (7%)
Switzerland (72%) Austria (9%)
				France (27%) Germany (15%) Spain (14%) Switzerland (13%)
Czechia (49%) England (27%) Croatia (23%)
		Spain (26%) Czechia (18%) England (16%) Poland (15%)
Spain (36%) Poland (31%) Sweden (21%)
								Belgium (20%) France (18%) Spain (11%) England (10%) Italy (10%)
Spain (48%) Sweden (45%)
		Spain (37%) Sweden (25%) Austria (11%) Switzerland (7%)
Austria (36%) Switzerland (16%) Ukraine (13%) Scotland (9%)
				Spain (21%) England (21%) France (12%) Germany (12%) Portugal (11%)
England (71%) Czechia (29%)
		England (35%) Germany (22%) France (18%) Portugal (16%)
Germany (42%) Portugal (26%) France (26%)
						Netherlands (14%) England (14%) Portugal (13%) Spain (13%) France (12%)
Netherlands (100%)
		Netherlands (55%) Portugal (19%) France (10%)
Portugal (33%) France (15%) Scotland (14%) Croatia (12%)
				Netherlands (31%) Denmark (20%) Wales (16%) Portugal (13%)
Wales (100%)
		Wales (44%) Denmark (38%) Russia (9%)
Denmark (57%) Russia (24%) Finland (11%)