PL: Match week 1

Simulated points for winner: 78 - 85
Simulated points for fourth: 65 - 70
Simulated points for 17th team: 38 - 41

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
0	Man City	77.6	+44	< 1%	99.60%	99.04%	97.7%	95%	50%	1.4%	2.7%	95.1%
3	Liverpool	72.4	+33	< 1%	97.4%	95%	90%	82%	20%	4.9%	9%	82%
3	Man United	70.6	+31	< 1%	95.7%	92%	86%	75%	14%	7%	11%	76%
3	Chelsea	69.7	+28	< 1%	95%	90%	83%	70%	12%	8%	13%	71%
0	Arsenal	61.0	+14	< 1%	68%	56%	40%	24%	1.4%	17%	19%	23%
3	Tottenham	60.4	+11	< 1%	65%	52%	37%	22%	1.1%	10%	42%	20%
3	West Ham	57.7	+7	< 1%	51%	37%	24%	13%	< 1%	13%	14%	20%
3	Leicester	56.1	+4	1.2%	42%	30%	18%	9%	< 1%	11%	13%	16%
3	Everton	52.2	-2	3.6%	24%	15%	8%	3.7%	< 1%	8%	8%	3.4%
0	Leeds	52.1	-3	4.0%	23%	14%	8%	3.5%	< 1%	7%	8%	3.2%
3	Brighton	47.1	-11	12%	8%	4.5%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	4.4%	< 1%
0	Aston Villa	47.0	-8	13%	9%	4.6%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.9%	4.7%	< 1%
0	Wolves	46.3	-10	15%	7%	3.9%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	4.4%	< 1%
0	Newcastle	44.2	-14	22%	4.2%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.5%	3.6%	< 1%
0	Burnley	42.1	-17	31%	2.4%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.2%	< 1%
0	Southampton	42.0	-18	32%	2.3%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.0%	< 1%
3	Brentford	41.5	-20	35%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	< 1%
0	Crystal Palace	41.5	-20	35%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.9%	< 1%
3	Watford	41.2	-22	36%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	< 1%
0	Norwich	36.9	-28	60%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.3%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Liverpool	73%	16%	11%	Burnley
Aston Villa	52%	23%	26%	Newcastle
Leeds	51%	23%	26%	Everton
Man City	83%	11%	6%	Norwich
Crystal Palace	51%	23%	26%	Brentford
Brighton	55%	22%	23%	Watford
Wolves	38%	24%	37%	Tottenham
Southampton	25%	23%	52%	Man United
Arsenal	43%	24%	33%	Chelsea
West Ham	50%	23%	27%	Leicester