PL: Chelsea win London derby

 

Hot Teams
Chelsea: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 4.6 more than expected
Brighton: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 4.6 more than expected
Man United: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 3.6 more than expected

Cold Teams
Burnley: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.5 less than expected
Norwich: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 less than expected
Newcastle: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.9 less than expected

Simulated points for winner: 80 - 86
Simulated points for fourth: 67 - 72
Simulated points for 17th team: 37 - 40

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
10	Man City	77.8	+47	< 1%	99.75%	99.32%	98.1%	94%	38%	1.6%	3.6%	94%
13	Chelsea	75.4	+38	< 1%	99.28%	98.2%	95.7%	89%	23%	3.2%	7%	88%
13	Liverpool	75.0	+38	< 1%	99.17%	98.0%	95.1%	88%	22%	3.4%	7%	88%
13	Man United	73.7	+34	< 1%	98.7%	97.0%	93%	84%	16%	4.6%	10%	83%
9	Tottenham	61.9	+8	< 1%	73%	60%	41%	19%	< 1%	12%	48%	17%
8	West Ham	58.2	+11	< 1%	56%	41%	24%	9%	< 1%	16%	18%	18%
6	Arsenal	58.0	+3	< 1%	53%	38%	22%	8%	< 1%	18%	17%	8%
10	Everton	54.9	+1	< 1%	36%	23%	11%	3.9%	< 1%	13%	11%	3.5%
6	Leicester	53.6	-0	1.3%	30%	18%	9%	2.7%	< 1%	10%	12%	8%
12	Brighton	51.9	-7	2.1%	21%	12%	5%	1.5%	< 1%	7%	7%	1.4%
3	Leeds	48.5	-8	6%	11%	6%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	4.1%	6%	< 1%
7	Aston Villa	48.2	-7	6%	10%	5%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.8%	5%	< 1%
8	Brentford	43.9	-14	17%	3.2%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	3.1%	< 1%
3	Wolves	42.6	-14	22%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.3%	< 1%
4	Southampton	42.1	-15	24%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.9%	< 1%
5	Crystal Palace	41.9	-18	25%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	< 1%
6	Watford	40.2	-22	34%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%
2	Newcastle	39.5	-21	38%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	< 1%
1	Burnley	37.9	-21	47%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	< 1%
0	Norwich	32.4	-35	77%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Chelsea	41%	24%	34%	Man City
Man United	69%	18%	14%	Aston Villa
Everton	64%	20%	17%	Norwich
Leicester	60%	21%	19%	Burnley
Watford	45%	24%	31%	Newcastle
Brentford	22%	22%	56%	Liverpool
Southampton	46%	24%	30%	Wolves
Arsenal	48%	24%	29%	Tottenham
Crystal Palace	43%	24%	33%	Brighton