PL: City win early finale

City won the early finale against Chelsea with 1-0 and are winning the league in 52% of the simulations.

Hot Teams
Aston Villa: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 more than expected
Man City: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 more than expected
Brighton: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 more than expected

Cold Teams
Norwich: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 4.4 less than expected
Leeds: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.1 less than expected
Newcastle: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 less than expected

Likely combination of teams in CL

Probability	Teams
43.7%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
6.5%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, West Ham
5%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
3.7%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
3.3%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, West Ham

Simulated points for winner: 80 - 86
Simulated points for fourth: 67 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 37 - 40

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
13	Man City	79.5	+48	< 1%	99.87%	99.64%	99.0%	97.0%	52%	< 1%	1.5%	97.6%
14	Liverpool	74.1	+37	< 1%	98.9%	97.6%	94%	87%	19%	3.1%	6%	89%
13	Chelsea	73.9	+37	< 1%	98.9%	97.4%	94%	87%	18%	3.3%	7%	88%
13	Man United	71.4	+31	< 1%	97.5%	95%	89%	77%	11%	6%	11%	79%
9	Tottenham	60.8	+7	< 1%	68%	54%	36%	17%	< 1%	11%	46%	17%
9	Arsenal	59.3	+5	< 1%	60%	45%	28%	13%	< 1%	18%	20%	13%
8	West Ham	58.2	+11	< 1%	55%	40%	25%	11%	< 1%	15%	17%	20%
13	Everton	55.7	+2	< 1%	40%	26%	14%	6%	< 1%	13%	13%	6%
7	Leicester	52.5	-1	1.6%	24%	14%	7%	2.3%	< 1%	8%	11%	7%
13	Brighton	51.7	-7	2.0%	19%	11%	5%	1.7%	< 1%	7%	7%	1.6%
10	Aston Villa	50.6	-4	2.9%	16%	9%	4.2%	1.3%	< 1%	6%	7%	1.3%
3	Leeds	48.5	-8	6%	11%	6%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	4.1%	6%	< 1%
6	Wolves	44.5	-12	14%	3.6%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	3.6%	< 1%
9	Brentford	44.0	-13	16%	3.0%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	3.0%	< 1%
6	Crystal Palace	41.4	-18	27%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	< 1%
4	Southampton	40.5	-16	31%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.9%	< 1%
7	Watford	39.6	-22	37%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%
3	Newcastle	39.3	-21	38%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	< 1%
2	Burnley	38.1	-20	45%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	< 1%
0	Norwich	31.7	-36	80%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Man United	65%	19%	16%	Everton
Chelsea	74%	16%	11%	Southampton
Leeds	60%	21%	19%	Watford
Wolves	51%	23%	26%	Newcastle
Burnley	55%	22%	23%	Norwich
Brighton	38%	24%	38%	Arsenal
Tottenham	61%	21%	19%	Aston Villa
West Ham	65%	19%	16%	Brentford
Crystal Palace	37%	24%	39%	Leicester
Liverpool	43%	24%	33%	Man City