PL: Everton the hottest team

 

Hot Teams
Everton: 10 points in the first 4 matches, 3.8 more than expected
Brighton: 9 points in the first 4 matches, 3.1 more than expected
Chelsea: 10 points in the first 4 matches, 3.0 more than expected

Cold Teams
Newcastle: 1 point in the first 4 matches, 3.5 less than expected
Burnley: 1 point in the first 4 matches, 3.3 less than expected
Norwich: 0 points in the first 4 matches, 2.9 less than expected

Simulated points for winner: 80 - 86
Simulated points for fourth: 67 - 72
Simulated points for 17th team: 37 - 40

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
9	Man City	79.3	+49	< 1%	99.83%	99.51%	98.6%	95.9%	49%	1.0%	2.5%	96.0%
10	Liverpool	74.5	+37	< 1%	98.8%	97.3%	94%	86%	20%	3.8%	8%	86%
10	Chelsea	73.7	+35	< 1%	98.5%	96.6%	92%	83%	17%	4.6%	9%	83%
10	Man United	72.0	+33	< 1%	97.5%	95%	89%	77%	12%	6%	12%	77%
9	Tottenham	63.3	+12	< 1%	78%	66%	48%	26%	1.2%	11%	46%	25%
8	West Ham	59.6	+12	< 1%	62%	47%	29%	14%	< 1%	17%	18%	21%
3	Arsenal	56.5	+2	< 1%	44%	29%	16%	7%	< 1%	15%	14%	6%
10	Everton	56.0	+4	< 1%	41%	27%	14%	6%	< 1%	14%	13%	5%
6	Leicester	54.8	+0	< 1%	34%	21%	11%	4.2%	< 1%	11%	12%	9%
9	Brighton	50.4	-8	3.5%	15%	8%	3.6%	1.1%	< 1%	6%	6%	1.0%
2	Leeds	48.8	-8	6%	11%	6%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	4.2%	6%	< 1%
4	Aston Villa	46.8	-9	9%	7%	3.5%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	4.4%	< 1%
3	Wolves	44.4	-11	15%	3.9%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.5%	3.6%	< 1%
5	Crystal Palace	42.4	-17	23%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	< 1%
5	Brentford	41.9	-17	25%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	< 1%
3	Southampton	41.5	-17	27%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	< 1%
1	Newcastle	40.0	-21	35%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.9%	< 1%
1	Burnley	39.1	-20	40%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	< 1%
3	Watford	38.3	-24	45%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%
0	Norwich	34.0	-32	69%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Newcastle	41%	24%	34%	Leeds
Wolves	53%	22%	24%	Brentford
Liverpool	76%	15%	10%	Crystal Palace
Man City	79%	13%	8%	Southampton
Burnley	33%	24%	43%	Arsenal
Norwich	46%	24%	30%	Watford
Aston Villa	46%	24%	31%	Everton
West Ham	38%	24%	38%	Man United
Brighton	43%	24%	33%	Leicester
Tottenham	40%	24%	36%	Chelsea