CL: Matchweek 1

 Updated probabilities after the first matchweek.

		Chance in Group			Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16	Quarter	Semi	Final	Champ
E	Bayern	2.1%	11%	87%	97.4%	71%	48%	32%	19%
A	Man City	4.1%	17%	78%	95.3%	71%	48%	31%	19%
D	Real Madrid	1.7%	16%	82%	98.1%	63%	36%	19%	10%
B	Liverpool	11%	24%	60%	84%	55%	32%	18%	9%
H	Chelsea	4.7%	34%	60%	95%	60%	34%	18%	9%
F	Man United	21%	27%	37%	65%	39%	22%	11%	5%
D	Inter	13%	69%	16%	84%	44%	23%	11%	5%
E	Barcelona	24%	58%	8%	67%	37%	19%	10%	4.6%
B	Atletico	28%	32%	21%	54%	29%	15%	7%	3.2%
H	Juventus	11%	51%	37%	89%	41%	18%	7%	2.8%
C	Dortmund	12%	39%	48%	87%	39%	16%	6%	2.4%
A	Paris SG	34%	43%	14%	57%	28%	12%	5%	2.2%
G	Sevilla	20%	28%	38%	67%	31%	14%	5%	2.2%
C	Ajax	9%	42%	48%	90%	36%	13%	4.5%	1.6%
F	Atalanta	24%	27%	31%	59%	27%	11%	4.1%	1.6%
F	Villarreal	28%	23%	18%	41%	17%	6%	2.0%	< 1%
A	RB Leipzig	40%	34%	6%	40%	16%	6%	2.1%	< 1%
G	Wolfsburg	28%	27%	25%	51%	18%	6%	1.6%	< 1%
B	Milan	29%	21%	8%	29%	11%	3.9%	1.3%	< 1%
G	Salzburg	25%	28%	26%	54%	18%	5%	1.5%	< 1%
B	Porto	32%	23%	11%	34%	12%	4.1%	1.3%	< 1%
E	Benfica	47%	23%	3.8%	27%	8%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Lille	27%	18%	11%	28%	7%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Young Boys	27%	22%	14%	36%	8%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Sporting	59%	16%	4.0%	20%	4.9%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Shakhtar	51%	12%	1.8%	14%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Zenit	56%	11%	2.1%	14%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Dynamo Kyiv	27%	8%	< 1%	9%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Brugge	22%	6%	< 1%	7%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Malmoe	29%	2.9%	< 1%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Besiktas	21%	3.1%	< 1%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Sheriff Tiraspol	34%	3.6%	< 1%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%