World Cup: European qualifiers

Deciding match between Turkey and Netherlands in Group G. Netherlands have 90% if they win, 40% if they lose. Turkey have 82% if they win, 24% if they lose. Sweden have 75% if they beat Greece, 49% if they lose. In Group H we have an important match between Croatia and Slovenia. In Group J we have an important match between Germany and Romania. Germany have 98% if they win, 78% if they lose.

Group A
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Portugal	4	10	20.3	(19-22)	15%	85%	15%	11%	8%	93%
Serbia	4	10	17.1	(16-19)	84%	15%	84%	43%	21%	35%
Luxembourg	4	6	8.73	(7-10)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Ireland	4	1	6.23	(5-8)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Azerbaijan	4	1	3.97	(2-5)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group B
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Sweden	3	9	17.8	(16-19)	48%	49%	48%	27%	15%	64%
Spain	5	10	17.1	(16-19)	49%	50%	50%	38%	28%	78%
Greece	3	3	8.79	(7-10)	3%	< 1%	3%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Kosovo	4	4	7.18	(5-8)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Georgia	5	1	4.16	(2-5)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group C
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Italy	5	11	18.4	(17-20)	35%	65%	35%	26%	18%	83%
Switzerland	3	7	17.5	(16-19)	63%	35%	63%	39%	23%	58%
Northern Ireland	3	4	9.09	(7-11)	2%	< 1%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Bulgaria	5	5	8.25	(7-9)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Lithuania	4	0	2.19	(1-3)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group D
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
France	5	9	16.8	(16-18)	5%	95%	5%	4%	3%	98%
Finland	3	5	10.7	(9-12)	31%	4%	31%	13%	5%	9%
Ukraine	5	5	10.3	(9-12)	38%	< 1%	38%	20%	10%	10%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	3	2	9.59	(8-11)	26%	< 1%	26%	9%	3%	3%
Kazakhstan	4	2	3.91	(2-5)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group E
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Belgium	5	13	20.5	(19-22)	7%	93%	7%	6%	5%	97%
Wales	3	6	16	(15-18)	68%	7%	93%	53%	28%	35%
Czechia	5	7	13	(11-14)	25%	< 1%	99%	47%	21%	21%
Belarus	4	3	5.96	(4-7)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Estonia	3	0	2.07	(1-3)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group F
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Denmark	5	15	27.7	(27-30)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
Austria	5	7	17	(16-19)	36%	< 1%	100%	46%	19%	19%
Israel	5	10	16.9	(16-19)	36%	< 1%	36%	10%	3%	3%
Scotland	5	8	16.2	(15-18)	28%	< 1%	28%	10%	3%	3%
Faroe Islands	5	1	4.15	(2-5)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Moldova	5	1	2.85	(1-4)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group G
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Netherlands	5	10	22.5	(21-25)	26%	65%	26%	18%	12%	77%
Turkey	5	11	21	(20-23)	46%	27%	46%	24%	12%	38%
Norway	5	10	19.4	(18-20)	26%	8%	26%	12%	5%	13%
Montenegro	5	7	13.6	(12-15)	< 1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Latvia	5	4	6.71	(5-8)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Gibraltar	5	0	1.74	(0-3)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group H
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Croatia	5	10	21.7	(20-23)	26%	70%	26%	14%	7%	77%
Russia	5	10	19.6	(18-22)	58%	28%	58%	26%	10%	38%
Slovenia	5	7	14.4	(13-16)	8%	1%	11%	3%	< 1%	2%
Slovakia	5	6	14.1	(12-16)	8%	1%	8%	3%	< 1%	2%
Cyprus	5	4	7.67	(7-9)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Malta	5	4	6.12	(4-7)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group I
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
England	5	15	27.6	(27-30)	3%	97%	3%	2%	1%	98%
Poland	5	10	20.8	(19-22)	82%	3%	82%	42%	21%	24%
Hungary	5	7	16.5	(16-17)	9%	< 1%	41%	18%	7%	7%
Albania	5	9	16.4	(15-18)	7%	< 1%	7%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Andorra	5	3	5.06	(4-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
San Marino	5	0	1.15	(0-3)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group J
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Germany	5	12	23.8	(22-25)	6%	93%	6%	4%	2%	95%
Romania	5	9	16.9	(15-19)	38%	3%	38%	13%	4%	6%
Armenia	5	10	16.9	(15-19)	30%	3%	30%	8%	2%	5%
North Macedonia	5	8	15.6	(14-17)	24%	2%	24%	7%	2%	3%
Iceland	5	4	11.3	(10-13)	2%	< 1%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Liechtenstein	5	0	1.02	(0-1)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Nation League Group Winners

NL Rank	Country	Group	NL spot	2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
1	France	D	< 1%	5%	95%	5%	4%	3%	98%
2	Belgium	E	< 1%	7%	93%	7%	6%	5%	97%
3	Italy	C	< 1%	35%	65%	35%	26%	18%	83%
4	Spain	B	1%	49%	50%	50%	38%	28%	78%
5	Wales	E	25%	68%	7%	93%	53%	28%	35%
6	Austria	F	64%	36%	< 1%	100%	46%	19%	19%
7	Czechia	E	74%	25%	< 1%	99%	47%	21%	21%
8	Hungary	I	32%	9%	< 1%	41%	18%	7%	7%
9	Slovenia	H	3%	8%	1%	11%	3%	< 1%	2%
10	Montenegro	G	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Albania	I	< 1%	7%	< 1%	7%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
12	Armenia	J	< 1%	30%	3%	30%	8%	2%	5%
14	Faroe Islands	F	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%