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Ecuador and Chile drew which means Chile are now down to a 16% chance, while Equador have 61% and are likely fighting with Colombia about the 4th spot. Colombia are hosting Chile on Thursday and if they win that they are up 67% (vs 37% if they lose). Chile are down to 9% if they lose compared with 32% if they win, so for them this match is crucial.
| Group A | |||||||||
| Country | MP | Pts | Simulated Pts | Playoff | 1st-4th | Playoff Winner | Qatar | ||
| Brazil | 7 | 21 | 45.6 | (43-48) | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | 100% | |
| Argentina | 7 | 15 | 34.1 | (31-37) | 2% | 98% | < 1% | 99% | |
| Uruguay | 8 | 12 | 28.8 | (26-31) | 11% | 82% | 5% | 87% | |
| Ecuador | 8 | 13 | 25.4 | (23-28) | 22% | 50% | 11% | 61% | |
| Colombia | 8 | 10 | 25 | (22-28) | 27% | 44% | 13% | 57% | |
| Peru | 8 | 8 | 20.4 | (18-23) | 13% | 9% | 6% | 16% | |
| Chile | 8 | 7 | 20 | (17-23) | 13% | 9% | 6% | 16% | |
| Paraguay | 8 | 8 | 19.3 | (17-22) | 10% | 7% | 5% | 11% | |
| Venezuela | 8 | 4 | 16.2 | (14-19) | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | |
| Bolivia | 8 | 6 | 12 | (10-14) | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |
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