World Cup: European qualifiers

Denmark and Belgium have more or less clinched a spot in the Wold Cup Finals. England, France and Germany are nearly there. Spain swang back as favorite (74%) in Group B after Sweden lost in Greece.

Team	Group	2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Denmark	F	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
Belgium	E	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
England	I	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
France	D	2%	98%	2%	1%	1%	99%
Germany	J	1%	98%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	99%
Portugal	A	10%	90%	10%	8%	6%	96%
Netherlands	G	13%	84%	13%	9%	6%	90%
Italy	C	23%	77%	23%	17%	13%	90%
Spain	B	25%	74%	26%	20%	15%	89%
Croatia	H	21%	77%	21%	12%	6%	84%
Switzerland	C	74%	23%	74%	47%	28%	52%
Sweden	B	67%	25%	67%	39%	21%	47%
Russia	H	66%	22%	66%	30%	13%	35%
Serbia	A	89%	10%	89%	47%	23%	34%
Wales	E	57%	< 1%	100%	58%	32%	32%
Turkey	G	56%	9%	56%	30%	15%	24%
Poland	I	83%	< 1%	83%	44%	23%	23%
Czechia	E	43%	< 1%	99%	49%	22%	22%
Austria	F	5%	< 1%	99%	47%	21%	21%
Norway	G	31%	7%	31%	14%	6%	13%
Ukraine	D	45%	< 1%	45%	25%	13%	13%
Scotland	F	66%	< 1%	66%	24%	8%	8%
Finland	D	36%	2%	36%	15%	6%	8%
Romania	J	51%	< 1%	51%	18%	6%	7%
Hungary	I	9%	< 1%	14%	6%	3%	3%
Israel	F	29%	< 1%	29%	8%	2%	2%
North Macedonia	J	24%	< 1%	24%	7%	2%	2%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	D	17%	< 1%	17%	6%	2%	2%
Slovakia	H	8%	< 1%	8%	3%	1%	2%
Armenia	J	22%	< 1%	22%	6%	2%	2%
Greece	B	8%	< 1%	8%	3%	< 1%	2%
Slovenia	H	4%	< 1%	5%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Albania	I	7%	< 1%	7%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Northern Ireland	C	2%	< 1%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Iceland	J	1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Bulgaria	C	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Luxembourg	A	1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Montenegro	G	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Kosovo	B	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Belarus	E	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Ireland	A	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Georgia	B	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Kazakhstan	D	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Estonia	E	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Cyprus	H	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Malta	H	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group A
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Portugal	5	13	20.6	(19-22)	10%	90%	10%	8%	6%	96%
Serbia	5	11	16.5	(15-17)	89%	10%	89%	47%	23%	34%
Luxembourg	4	6	8.72	(7-10)	1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Ireland	5	2	6.14	(5-8)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Azerbaijan	5	1	3.8	(2-5)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group B
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Spain	6	13	17.6	(16-19)	25%	74%	26%	20%	15%	89%
Sweden	4	9	16.1	(15-18)	67%	25%	67%	39%	21%	47%
Greece	4	6	10.7	(9-12)	8%	< 1%	8%	3%	< 1%	2%
Kosovo	5	4	6.88	(5-8)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Georgia	5	1	4.16	(2-5)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group C
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Italy	6	14	18.5	(17-20)	23%	77%	23%	17%	13%	90%
Switzerland	4	8	16.5	(15-17)	74%	23%	74%	47%	28%	52%
Northern Ireland	4	5	9.38	(8-11)	2%	< 1%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Bulgaria	5	5	8.26	(7-9)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Lithuania	5	0	2.1	(1-3)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group D
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
France	6	12	17.1	(16-18)	2%	98%	2%	1%	1%	99%
Finland	4	5	10.4	(9-12)	36%	2%	36%	15%	6%	8%
Ukraine	5	5	10.3	(9-12)	45%	< 1%	45%	25%	13%	13%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	4	3	8.13	(6-10)	17%	< 1%	17%	6%	2%	2%
Kazakhstan	5	3	4.51	(3-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group E
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Belgium	6	16	20.8	(20-22)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
Wales	4	7	14.2	(13-16)	57%	< 1%	100%	58%	32%	32%
Czechia	5	7	13	(11-14)	43%	< 1%	99%	49%	22%	22%
Belarus	5	3	5.74	(4-7)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Estonia	4	1	2.9	(1-4)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group F
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Denmark	6	18	28.1	(27-30)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
Scotland	6	11	18.4	(17-20)	66%	< 1%	66%	24%	8%	8%
Israel	6	10	16.7	(16-18)	29%	< 1%	29%	8%	2%	2%
Austria	6	7	15	(14-16)	5%	< 1%	99%	47%	21%	21%
Faroe Islands	6	4	5.3	(4-7)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Moldova	6	1	1.93	(1-2)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group G
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Netherlands	6	13	23.4	(22-25)	13%	84%	13%	9%	6%	90%
Turkey	6	11	20.3	(19-23)	56%	9%	56%	30%	15%	24%
Norway	6	13	19.5	(19-20)	31%	7%	31%	14%	6%	13%
Montenegro	6	8	12.2	(11-14)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Latvia	6	5	7.28	(6-8)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Gibraltar	6	0	1.68	(0-3)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group H
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Croatia	6	13	22.4	(21-25)	21%	77%	21%	12%	6%	84%
Russia	6	13	19.8	(18-22)	66%	22%	66%	30%	13%	35%
Slovakia	6	9	14.6	(13-16)	8%	< 1%	8%	3%	1%	2%
Slovenia	6	7	13.9	(12-16)	4%	< 1%	5%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Cyprus	6	4	7.28	(6-8)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Malta	6	4	5.97	(4-7)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group I
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
England	6	16	27	(26-28)	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
Poland	6	11	20.6	(20-23)	83%	< 1%	83%	44%	23%	23%
Hungary	6	10	16.6	(16-18)	9%	< 1%	14%	6%	3%	3%
Albania	6	12	16.5	(15-18)	7%	< 1%	7%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Andorra	6	3	5	(4-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
San Marino	6	0	1.11	(0-3)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group J
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Germany	6	15	24.7	(24-27)	1%	98%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	99%
Romania	6	10	16.7	(15-19)	51%	< 1%	51%	18%	6%	7%
Armenia	6	11	15.1	(14-17)	22%	< 1%	22%	6%	2%	2%
North Macedonia	6	9	15	(13-16)	24%	< 1%	24%	7%	2%	2%
Iceland	6	4	10.6	(9-12)	1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Liechtenstein	6	1	1.85	(1-2)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

The two highest ranked countries in list below that do not finish top 2 in their group qualify for playoff. Currently it looks like Austria with Wales or Czechia.

Nation League Group Winners

NL Rank	Country	Group	NL spot	2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
1	France	D	< 1%	2%	98%	2%	1%	1%	99%
2	Belgium	E	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
3	Italy	C	< 1%	23%	77%	23%	17%	13%	90%
4	Spain	B	1%	25%	74%	26%	20%	15%	89%
5	Wales	E	43%	57%	< 1%	100%	58%	32%	32%
6	Austria	F	94%	5%	< 1%	99%	47%	21%	21%
7	Czechia	E	56%	43%	< 1%	99%	49%	22%	22%
8	Hungary	I	4%	9%	< 1%	14%	6%	3%	3%
9	Slovenia	H	< 1%	4%	< 1%	5%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Montenegro	G	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Albania	I	< 1%	7%	< 1%	7%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
12	Armenia	J	< 1%	22%	< 1%	22%	6%	2%	2%