World Cup: Sweden beat Spain

Portugal remain favorite in Group A followed by Serbia.

Group A
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Portugal	4	10	20.3	(19-22)	13%	87%	13%	10%	7%	94%
Serbia	3	7	16.8	(15-19)	84%	13%	84%	43%	20%	34%
Luxembourg	3	6	8.97	(7-10)	2%	< 1%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Ireland	3	0	7.61	(6-9)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Azerbaijan	3	0	3.43	(2-5)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Sweden won against Spain and are now favorites to win the group (52%).

Group B
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Sweden	3	9	17.8	(16-19)	44%	52%	44%	25%	13%	66%
Spain	4	7	16.9	(16-19)	51%	47%	53%	40%	30%	77%
Greece	2	2	9.35	(7-11)	5%	1%	5%	2%	< 1%	2%
Kosovo	3	3	7.38	(6-9)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Georgia	4	1	4.3	(2-5)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Switzerland host Italy on Sunday in an early group final. Switzerland have 84% if they win and 43% if they lose. Italy have 94% if they win and 66% if they lose.

Group C
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Italy	4	10	18.8	(17-20)	38%	61%	39%	29%	20%	81%
Switzerland	2	6	17.8	(16-19)	59%	39%	59%	36%	21%	60%
Northern Ireland	3	4	9.09	(7-11)	3%	< 1%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Bulgaria	4	2	7.38	(6-9)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Lithuania	3	0	2.86	(1-4)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

France still favorites.

Group D
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
France	4	8	17.7	(17-20)	5%	94%	6%	4%	3%	98%
Finland	2	2	10.3	(8-12)	32%	3%	32%	13%	5%	8%
Ukraine	4	4	10.2	(8-12)	35%	2%	35%	18%	9%	11%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	3	2	9.59	(8-11)	28%	< 1%	28%	9%	3%	3%
Kazakhstan	3	2	4.19	(3-5)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Belgium favorites and Wales and Chechia fighter over the 2nd spot. Chechia are very likely to get a playoff place regardless due to their NL results.

Group E
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Belgium	4	10	20.1	(19-22)	8%	92%	8%	7%	5%	97%
Wales	2	3	15.1	(13-17)	58%	7%	93%	53%	28%	35%
Czechia	4	7	13.4	(12-15)	34%	1%	97%	46%	20%	21%
Belarus	3	3	6.65	(5-8)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Estonia	3	0	2.06	(0-3)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Denmark have almost already clinched a ticket to Qatar.

Group F
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Denmark	4	12	27.5	(26-30)	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99%
Austria	3	4	18.2	(16-20)	57%	< 1%	99%	45%	19%	20%
Scotland	4	5	16	(14-18)	25%	< 1%	25%	9%	3%	3%
Israel	4	7	15.1	(13-17)	17%	< 1%	17%	5%	1%	1%
Faroe Islands	4	1	4.3	(3-5)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Moldova	3	1	3.33	(2-5)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Turkey only drew against Montenegro, which may become costly. Holland and Norway shared the points in Oslo. Holland host Turkey on Tuesday in match that will determine a lot in this group.

Group G
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Netherlands	4	7	22.2	(21-25)	27%	63%	27%	18%	12%	75%
Turkey	4	8	20.8	(19-23)	46%	28%	46%	24%	12%	40%
Norway	4	7	18.9	(17-20)	25%	8%	25%	11%	5%	13%
Montenegro	4	7	13.9	(12-16)	2%	< 1%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Latvia	4	4	7.11	(5-8)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Gibraltar	4	0	1.88	(0-3)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Russia and Croatia drew in the group final, which opened up for Slovakia and Slovenia but they also drew.

Group H
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Croatia	4	7	20.3	(19-22)	27%	61%	27%	15%	7%	68%
Russia	4	7	18.8	(17-20)	47%	31%	47%	20%	8%	39%
Slovakia	4	6	15.2	(13-17)	16%	6%	16%	6%	2%	8%
Slovenia	4	4	14	(12-16)	10%	2%	20%	6%	2%	4%
Cyprus	4	4	8.28	(7-10)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Malta	4	4	6.37	(5-8)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected results and England remain favorites while Poland and Hungary fight over 2nd spot.

Group I
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
England	4	12	27.5	(27-30)	3%	97%	3%	2%	1%	98%
Poland	4	7	20.7	(19-22)	73%	3%	73%	38%	18%	21%
Hungary	4	7	18.2	(17-20)	21%	< 1%	65%	29%	12%	12%
Albania	4	6	14.5	(13-16)	3%	< 1%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Andorra	4	3	5.07	(4-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
San Marino	4	0	1.2	(0-3)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Germany will most likely win the group.

Group J
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Germany	4	9	23.4	(22-25)	9%	88%	9%	6%	4%	92%
Armenia	4	10	17.2	(15-19)	31%	6%	31%	8%	2%	8%
Romania	4	6	16.7	(15-19)	33%	3%	33%	11%	3%	7%
North Macedonia	4	7	15.6	(14-17)	23%	3%	23%	7%	2%	5%
Iceland	4	3	12	(10-14)	3%	< 1%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Liechtenstein	4	0	1.14	(0-2)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

The two highest ranked countries from the list below that do not finish 1st or 2nd in their group will qualify for the playoff.

Nation League Group Winners

NL Rank	Country	Group	NL spot	2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
1	France	D	< 1%	5%	94%	6%	4%	3%	98%
2	Belgium	E	< 1%	8%	92%	8%	7%	5%	97%
3	Italy	C	< 1%	38%	61%	39%	29%	20%	81%
4	Spain	B	3%	51%	47%	53%	40%	30%	77%
5	Wales	E	35%	58%	7%	93%	53%	28%	35%
6	Austria	F	41%	57%	< 1%	99%	45%	19%	20%
7	Czechia	E	63%	34%	1%	97%	46%	20%	21%
8	Hungary	I	43%	21%	< 1%	65%	29%	12%	12%
9	Slovenia	H	11%	10%	2%	20%	6%	2%	4%
10	Montenegro	G	1%	2%	< 1%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Albania	I	< 1%	3%	< 1%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
12	Armenia	J	< 1%	31%	6%	31%	8%	2%	8%
14	Faroe Islands	F	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%