EL: West Ham and Napoli favorites

West Ham and Napoli still favorites, although Napoli have difficulties at the group stage with only four points after three matches.

		Chance in Group		Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	2nd	1st	Last 24	Last 16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
H	West Ham	2.0%	97.9%	99.89%	99.11%	64%	40%	24%	13%
C	Napoli	24%	50%	74%	64%	41%	25%	14%	7%
	Barcelona			45%	35%	25%	17%	11%	6%
G	Leverkusen	35%	64%	98.8%	83%	47%	25%	13%	6%
	Atletico			36%	29%	21%	14%	9%	6%
A	Lyon	2.5%	97.3%	99.75%	98.5%	50%	24%	11%	4.7%
B	Sociedad	44%	35%	79%	59%	34%	17%	8%	3.8%
G	Betis	60%	36%	96.4%	66%	35%	17%	8%	3.4%
D	Frankfurt	40%	56%	96.3%	76%	38%	18%	8%	3.4%
	Inter			19%	15%	11%	8%	5%	3.2%
C	Leicester	40%	30%	70%	50%	28%	14%	7%	3.2%
	Porto			45%	32%	19%	11%	6%	3.0%
	Atalanta			29%	22%	15%	9%	5%	2.9%
	Villarreal			38%	27%	17%	10%	6%	2.8%
	Man United			12%	10%	8%	6%	4.2%	2.7%
	Sevilla			24%	18%	13%	8%	4.8%	2.7%
D	Olympiakos	53%	42%	95.6%	67%	32%	14%	6%	2.3%
	Benfica			36%	25%	15%	8%	4.4%	2.2%
	Wolfsburg			39%	26%	15%	8%	4.0%	1.9%
E	Lazio	38%	29%	67%	47%	24%	11%	4.4%	1.9%
B	Monaco	32%	55%	87%	69%	30%	12%	4.7%	1.8%
	RB Leipzig			28%	19%	11%	6%	3.2%	1.5%
	Sporting			85%	49%	22%	9%	3.7%	1.5%
	Milan			18%	13%	8%	4.8%	2.7%	1.4%
	Dortmund			10%	8%	5%	3.5%	2.1%	1.2%
	Chelsea			4.9%	4.2%	3.4%	2.5%	1.8%	1.2%
	Real Madrid			4.6%	3.9%	3.1%	2.3%	1.7%	1.1%
	Zenit			85%	46%	20%	8%	2.9%	1.1%
	Paris SG			4.4%	3.7%	2.9%	2.1%	1.5%	< 1%
	Man City			2.1%	1.9%	1.6%	1.4%	1.1%	< 1%
	Lille			27%	16%	8%	3.5%	1.4%	< 1%
B	PSV	23%	9%	33%	19%	9%	3.7%	1.4%	< 1%
F	Crvena Zvezda	36%	57%	93%	68%	22%	6%	1.6%	< 1%
	Salzburg			9%	6%	3.6%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Braga	51%	40%	91%	56%	19%	5%	1.4%	< 1%
	Young Boys			20%	12%	6%	2.5%	1.0%	< 1%
E	Marseille	26%	18%	44%	27%	10%	3.6%	1.1%	< 1%
H	Dinamo Zagreb	58%	1.5%	60%	23%	9%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%
	Brugge			65%	30%	11%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%
	Dynamo Kyiv			19%	9%	3.8%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
	Liverpool			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Galatasaray	32%	51%	83%	58%	14%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
	Juventus			1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Rangers	40%	1.0%	41%	14%	4.6%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
	Ajax			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Shakhtar			9%	4.8%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Sparta Praha	49%	1.7%	51%	15%	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Bayern			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Legia	29%	18%	48%	24%	5.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Genk	24%	< 1%	24%	6%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Midtjylland	9%	2.2%	11%	4.5%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Sheriff Tiraspol			67%	17%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Malmoe			9%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Lok Moskva	4.9%	1.6%	7%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Rapid Wien	16%	< 1%	16%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Spartak Moskva	7%	2.1%	9%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Fenerbahce	3.5%	< 1%	4.1%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Razgrad	3.7%	< 1%	4.4%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Besiktas			4.1%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Antwerp	3.5%	< 1%	4.0%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Brondby	8%	< 1%	9%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Celtic	3.8%	< 1%	4.2%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Sturm Graz	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Ferencvaros	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%