CL: Updated probabilities after matchweek 3

Updated probabilities after matchweek 3

		Chance in Group			Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16	Quarter	Semi	Final	Champ
E	Bayern	< 1%	1.1%	98.8%	99.91%	73%	51%	34%	21%
A	Man City	2.1%	42%	56%	97.8%	71%	47%	30%	18%
B	Liverpool	< 1%	4.5%	95.0%	99.49%	70%	42%	24%	13%
H	Chelsea	5.0%	66%	29%	95%	56%	31%	16%	8%
D	Real Madrid	4.6%	18%	77%	95%	56%	30%	15%	7%
A	Paris SG	4.4%	51%	44%	95.1%	54%	29%	14%	7%
F	Man United	12%	26%	58%	84%	51%	26%	13%	6%
D	Inter	19%	58%	18%	77%	36%	17%	8%	3.4%
C	Ajax	< 1%	17%	82%	99.12%	49%	21%	8%	3.2%
C	Dortmund	10%	72%	17%	90%	39%	16%	6%	2.5%
H	Juventus	1.1%	28%	71%	98.9%	46%	18%	6%	2.4%
B	Atletico	36%	52%	3.4%	55%	25%	12%	4.9%	2.1%
G	Sevilla	24%	41%	24%	65%	26%	11%	4.0%	1.5%
E	Barcelona	45%	43%	< 1%	43%	19%	8%	3.4%	1.4%
F	Atalanta	29%	34%	23%	57%	23%	9%	3.1%	1.1%
G	Salzburg	9%	24%	66%	90%	32%	10%	2.7%	< 1%
F	Villarreal	38%	30%	16%	47%	17%	6%	1.9%	< 1%
E	Benfica	36%	51%	< 1%	51%	17%	6%	1.7%	< 1%
B	Porto	45%	37%	1.5%	39%	13%	4.5%	1.4%	< 1%
G	Wolfsburg	39%	23%	7%	30%	9%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Milan	18%	6%	< 1%	6%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Lille	27%	12%	3.0%	15%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Young Boys	20%	10%	2.9%	13%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Sporting	85%	10%	< 1%	11%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	RB Leipzig	28%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Zenit	85%	5%	< 1%	6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Dynamo Kyiv	19%	6%	< 1%	6%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Shakhtar	9%	4.1%	< 1%	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Brugge	65%	6%	< 1%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Sheriff Tiraspol	67%	19%	4.6%	24%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Malmoe	9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Besiktas	4.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group A			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
3	7	Paris SG	11.8	(10-13)	< 1%	4%	51%	44%	95%
3	6	Man City	12.3	(11-13)	< 1%	2%	42%	56%	98%
3	4	Brugge	5.9	(4-7)	28%	65%	6%	< 1%	6%
3	0	RB Leipzig	3.8	(2-6)	71%	28%	< 1%	< 1%	1%

Group B			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
3	9	Liverpool	14.7	(13-16)	< 1%	< 1%	4%	95%	99%
3	4	Atletico	8	(7-10)	9%	36%	52%	3%	55%
3	4	Porto	7.1	(5-8)	16%	45%	37%	2%	39%
3	0	Milan	3.8	(2-6)	76%	18%	6%	< 1%	6%

Group C			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
3	9	Ajax	14.3	(13-16)	< 1%	< 1%	17%	82%	99%
3	6	Dortmund	11.7	(10-13)	< 1%	10%	72%	17%	90%
3	3	Sporting	7.1	(6-9)	4%	85%	10%	< 1%	11%
3	0	Besiktas	1.8	(0-3)	96%	4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group D			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
3	6	Sheriff Tiraspol	7.6	(6-9)	9%	67%	19%	5%	24%
3	6	Real Madrid	12.6	(12-15)	< 1%	5%	18%	77%	95%
3	4	Inter	9.5	(8-11)	4%	19%	59%	18%	77%
3	1	Shakhtar	4.2	(4-5)	86%	9%	4%	< 1%	4%

Group E			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
3	9	Bayern	15.7	(15-18)	< 1%	< 1%	1%	99%	100%
3	4	Benfica	7.4	(6-8)	12%	36%	50%	< 1%	51%
3	3	Barcelona	7.3	(6-9)	12%	45%	43%	< 1%	43%
3	1	Dynamo Kyiv	3.4	(2-5)	76%	19%	6%	< 1%	6%

Group F			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
3	6	Man United	11	(9-13)	4%	12%	26%	58%	84%
3	4	Atalanta	8.6	(7-10)	14%	29%	34%	23%	57%
3	4	Villarreal	8.3	(7-10)	15%	38%	30%	16%	47%
3	3	Young Boys	5.7	(4-7)	67%	20%	10%	3%	13%

Group G			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
3	7	Salzburg	10.8	(9-13)	< 1%	9%	24%	66%	90%
3	3	Sevilla	8.2	(7-10)	10%	24%	41%	24%	65%
3	2	Lille	5.1	(3-6)	57%	27%	12%	3%	15%
3	2	Wolfsburg	6.4	(5-8)	31%	39%	23%	7%	30%

Group H			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
3	9	Juventus	14.4	(13-15)	< 1%	1%	28%	71%	99%
3	6	Chelsea	12	(10-13)	< 1%	5%	66%	29%	95%
3	3	Zenit	6.1	(4-7)	9%	85%	5%	< 1%	6%
3	0	Malmoe	2.3	(1-3)	91%	9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%