PL: United thrashed by Liverpool

United thrashed by Liverpool

Hot Teams
Wolves: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 more than expected
Chelsea: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 2.3 more than expected
Arsenal: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 2.1 more than expected

Cold Teams
Man United: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 4.7 less than expected
Everton: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.6 less than expected
Newcastle: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.0 less than expected

Likely combination of teams in CL

Probability	Teams
41.4%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
10.7%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, West Ham
9.8%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
7.9%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, West Ham
7.2%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham

Simulated points for winner: 81 - 88
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 36 - 40

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
20	Man City	81.1	+51	< 1%	99.97%	99.91%	99.68%	98.8%	48%	< 1%	< 1%	99.01%
21	Liverpool	78.4	+50	< 1%	99.89%	99.68%	99.04%	97.0%	30%	< 1%	1.7%	97.4%
22	Chelsea	76.7	+44	< 1%	99.76%	99.34%	98.2%	95%	20%	1.2%	3.0%	95.3%
14	Man United	66.7	+22	< 1%	93%	87%	76%	57%	1.4%	10%	19%	60%
14	Arsenal	59.9	+6	< 1%	68%	53%	35%	16%	< 1%	18%	24%	16%
14	West Ham	59.5	+11	< 1%	67%	52%	34%	16%	< 1%	16%	20%	27%
15	Tottenham	58.7	+1	< 1%	60%	45%	28%	12%	< 1%	13%	38%	12%
14	Everton	53.4	-1	< 1%	30%	19%	9%	3.1%	< 1%	10%	11%	3.1%
14	Leicester	53.0	-2	< 1%	28%	17%	8%	2.7%	< 1%	9%	14%	6%
15	Brighton	50.7	-8	2.0%	17%	9%	4.2%	1.2%	< 1%	6%	7%	1.2%
10	Aston Villa	49.2	-4	3.4%	13%	7%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	4.9%	6%	< 1%
13	Wolves	47.8	-10	4.9%	9%	4.4%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	3.3%	4.8%	< 1%
7	Leeds	45.8	-12	9%	6%	2.9%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%	4.7%	< 1%
12	Brentford	45.7	-10	9%	5%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.0%	3.5%	< 1%
9	Crystal Palace	42.6	-14	19%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.9%	< 1%
8	Southampton	41.2	-16	25%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	< 1%
10	Watford	40.0	-23	32%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%
4	Newcastle	36.6	-22	51%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	< 1%
4	Burnley	36.2	-21	54%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	< 1%
2	Norwich	28.9	-44	90%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Leicester	40%	24%	36%	Arsenal
Liverpool	73%	16%	11%	Brighton
Newcastle	24%	23%	53%	Chelsea
Man City	79%	13%	8%	Crystal Palace
Burnley	47%	24%	29%	Brentford
Watford	46%	24%	30%	Southampton
Tottenham	37%	24%	39%	Man United
Norwich	34%	24%	42%	Leeds
Aston Villa	41%	24%	34%	West Ham
Wolves	42%	24%	34%	Everton