PL: Wolves the hottest team in the league

 

Hot Teams
Wolves: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 6.2 more than expected
Arsenal: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 2.3 more than expected
Chelsea: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 1.8 more than expected

Cold Teams
Man United: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 4.3 less than expected
Everton: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 less than expected
Newcastle: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 less than expected

Likely combination of teams in CL

Probability	Teams
34.6%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
17.3%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, West Ham
14.8%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
7.7%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, West Ham
4.1%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham

Simulated points for winner: 82 - 88
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 37 - 40

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
20	Man City	79.6	+49	< 1%	99.96%	99.86%	99.49%	98.1%	34%	< 1%	1.1%	98.4%
22	Liverpool	79.4	+53	< 1%	99.95%	99.83%	99.42%	97.9%	34%	< 1%	1.2%	98.3%
25	Chelsea	79.0	+48	< 1%	99.93%	99.77%	99.24%	97.4%	31%	< 1%	1.6%	97.6%
17	Man United	65.5	+20	< 1%	91%	84%	71%	48%	< 1%	13%	23%	51%
17	Arsenal	61.6	+8	< 1%	77%	64%	45%	23%	< 1%	19%	27%	22%
17	West Ham	61.4	+15	< 1%	77%	64%	45%	23%	< 1%	16%	22%	34%
15	Tottenham	56.6	-3	< 1%	48%	32%	17%	6%	< 1%	12%	34%	6%
14	Leicester	53.9	-1	< 1%	33%	20%	9%	3.1%	< 1%	10%	15%	8%
16	Brighton	50.8	-7	1.9%	18%	9%	4.1%	1.2%	< 1%	6%	7%	1.2%
16	Wolves	50.6	-5	1.8%	17%	9%	4.0%	1.1%	< 1%	6%	7%	1.1%
14	Everton	49.7	-6	2.7%	14%	7%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	7%	< 1%
10	Leeds	46.9	-12	7%	7%	3.6%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	5.0%	< 1%
12	Crystal Palace	45.7	-9	9%	5%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.1%	3.5%	< 1%
10	Aston Villa	45.6	-11	9%	5%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.0%	4.1%	< 1%
12	Brentford	44.8	-11	11%	3.8%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.5%	3.2%	< 1%
11	Southampton	43.3	-14	16%	2.5%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.1%	< 1%
10	Watford	39.2	-23	37%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%
7	Burnley	37.2	-20	48%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	< 1%
4	Newcastle	34.8	-26	64%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	< 1%
2	Norwich	27.9	-44	93%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Southampton	45%	24%	32%	Aston Villa
Man United	35%	24%	41%	Man City
Chelsea	76%	14%	9%	Burnley
Brentford	58%	21%	20%	Norwich
Crystal Palace	45%	24%	31%	Wolves
Brighton	54%	22%	23%	Newcastle
Arsenal	67%	18%	14%	Watford
Everton	45%	24%	31%	Tottenham
Leeds	44%	24%	32%	Leicester
West Ham	32%	24%	44%	Liverpool