CL: Probabilities after matchweek 4

 

		Chance in Group			Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16	Quarter	Semi	Final	Champ
A	Man City	< 1%	26%	74%	99.86%	76%	52%	34%	20%
E	Bayern	< 1%	< 1%	99.94%	100%	73%	50%	33%	19%
B	Liverpool	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	76%	49%	30%	17%
H	Chelsea	< 1%	69%	30%	99.29%	61%	35%	19%	9%
D	Real Madrid	3.2%	16%	80%	96.8%	58%	31%	16%	7%
A	Paris SG	3.7%	70%	26%	96.3%	51%	26%	12%	5%
C	Ajax	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	100%	55%	25%	10%	4.1%
F	Man United	11%	31%	55%	87%	49%	23%	10%	4.0%
D	Inter	9%	72%	18%	90%	39%	17%	7%	2.7%
H	Juventus	< 1%	30%	70%	100%	46%	17%	6%	2.0%
E	Barcelona	31%	69%	< 1%	69%	28%	11%	4.2%	1.6%
B	Atletico	43%	47%	< 1%	47%	21%	9%	3.8%	1.5%
C	Dortmund	31%	69%	< 1%	69%	27%	11%	3.9%	1.5%
G	Salzburg	10%	22%	62%	84%	31%	10%	2.9%	< 1%
F	Villarreal	34%	31%	33%	64%	24%	8%	2.5%	< 1%
B	Porto	47%	51%	< 1%	51%	18%	6%	2.0%	< 1%
F	Atalanta	39%	34%	11%	44%	15%	5%	1.6%	< 1%
G	Sevilla	35%	15%	7%	23%	9%	3.4%	1.2%	< 1%
E	Benfica	56%	31%	< 1%	31%	9%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Lille	37%	26%	19%	45%	11%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Wolfsburg	18%	36%	12%	48%	11%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Sporting	69%	31%	< 1%	31%	7%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Milan	10%	2.4%	< 1%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Young Boys	15%	4.5%	< 1%	5%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Shakhtar	3.7%	4.5%	< 1%	4.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Brugge	63%	3.9%	< 1%	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Zenit	94%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Dynamo Kyiv	14%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Sheriff Tiraspol	84%	7%	1.3%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	RB Leipzig	33%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Malmoe	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Besiktas	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group A			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	9	Man City	12.8	(12-15)	< 1%	< 1%	26%	74%	100%
4	8	Paris SG	11.2	(11-12)	< 1%	4%	70%	26%	96%
4	4	Brugge	5.6	(4-7)	33%	63%	4%	< 1%	4%
4	1	RB Leipzig	3.5	(2-5)	67%	33%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group B			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	12	Liverpool	15.9	(15-18)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%
4	5	Porto	7.1	(6-8)	2%	47%	51%	< 1%	51%
4	4	Atletico	7.2	(6-8)	11%	43%	47%	< 1%	47%
4	1	Milan	3	(1-4)	87%	10%	2%	< 1%	2%

Group C			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	12	Ajax	16.3	(15-18)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%
4	6	Dortmund	9.9	(9-12)	< 1%	31%	69%	< 1%	69%
4	6	Sporting	8	(6-9)	< 1%	69%	31%	< 1%	31%
4	0	Besiktas	1	(0-2)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group D			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	9	Real Madrid	13.3	(12-15)	< 1%	3%	16%	80%	97%
4	7	Inter	10.1	(10-11)	< 1%	9%	72%	18%	90%
4	6	Sheriff Tiraspol	7	(6-7)	8%	84%	7%	1%	8%
4	1	Shakhtar	3.8	(3-4)	92%	4%	5%	< 1%	5%

Group E			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	12	Bayern	16.4	(15-18)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%
4	6	Barcelona	8.6	(7-9)	< 1%	31%	69%	< 1%	69%
4	4	Benfica	6.9	(5-8)	14%	56%	31%	< 1%	31%
4	1	Dynamo Kyiv	2.4	(1-4)	86%	14%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group F			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	7	Man United	10.6	(10-11)	2%	11%	31%	55%	87%
4	7	Villarreal	9.5	(8-11)	1%	34%	31%	33%	64%
4	5	Atalanta	8.1	(6-9)	16%	40%	34%	11%	44%
4	3	Young Boys	4.9	(3-6)	80%	15%	4%	< 1%	5%

Group G			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	7	Salzburg	9.8	(8-11)	6%	10%	22%	62%	84%
4	5	Lille	7.5	(6-9)	18%	37%	26%	19%	45%
4	5	Wolfsburg	7.4	(6-8)	34%	18%	36%	12%	48%
4	3	Sevilla	6.3	(5-7)	42%	35%	15%	8%	23%

Group H			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	12	Juventus	15.2	(15-16)	< 1%	< 1%	30%	70%	100%
4	9	Chelsea	13.1	(12-15)	< 1%	< 1%	69%	30%	99%
4	3	Zenit	5.2	(4-6)	6%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	0	Malmoe	1.7	(0-3)	94%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%