PL: Wolves the hottest team

 

Hot Teams
Wolves: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 5.1 more than expected
Chelsea: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 more than expected
Brighton: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.2 more than expected

Cold Teams
Newcastle: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 less than expected
West Ham: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected
Burnley: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.1 less than expected

Likely combination of teams in CL

Probability	Teams
45.9%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
7.6%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
7.6%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, West Ham
6.7%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, West Ham
6.4%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City

Simulated points for winner: 80 - 87
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 36 - 40

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
17	Man City	80.0	+49	< 1%	99.94%	99.81%	99.41%	98.0%	48%	< 1%	1.1%	98.4%
18	Liverpool	76.6	+45	< 1%	99.71%	99.24%	98.0%	94%	25%	1.2%	3.1%	95.1%
19	Chelsea	76.2	+39	< 1%	99.64%	99.11%	97.7%	94%	23%	1.4%	3.5%	94%
14	Man United	68.2	+27	< 1%	95%	90%	82%	65%	3.5%	8%	16%	68%
15	Tottenham	59.7	+2	< 1%	64%	50%	32%	14%	< 1%	12%	41%	14%
11	Arsenal	58.9	+5	< 1%	60%	45%	29%	12%	< 1%	18%	21%	12%
11	West Ham	58.3	+11	< 1%	59%	44%	27%	11%	< 1%	15%	18%	22%
14	Everton	55.4	+3	< 1%	41%	27%	15%	5%	< 1%	13%	14%	5%
15	Brighton	51.6	-6	1.5%	20%	11%	5%	1.6%	< 1%	7%	8%	1.6%
11	Leicester	51.3	-3	1.8%	20%	11%	5%	1.5%	< 1%	7%	12%	3.7%
10	Aston Villa	50.0	-3	2.7%	16%	9%	3.9%	1.1%	< 1%	6%	7%	1.1%
12	Wolves	47.7	-10	5%	8%	4.3%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	3.2%	4.7%	< 1%
12	Brentford	47.2	-8	6%	7%	3.8%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	4.1%	< 1%
6	Leeds	46.6	-11	8%	7%	3.6%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	4.9%	< 1%
8	Crystal Palace	43.3	-13	16%	2.6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	3.0%	< 1%
7	Southampton	41.9	-15	21%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.9%	< 1%
7	Watford	37.7	-27	45%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%
3	Newcastle	36.7	-23	50%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	< 1%
3	Burnley	36.2	-22	53%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%
2	Norwich	29.3	-39	88%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Arsenal	58%	21%	20%	Aston Villa
Chelsea	80%	12%	7%	Norwich
Everton	62%	20%	18%	Watford
Leeds	52%	23%	25%	Wolves
Southampton	51%	23%	26%	Burnley
Crystal Palace	50%	23%	27%	Newcastle
Brighton	22%	22%	56%	Man City
West Ham	52%	23%	25%	Tottenham
Brentford	42%	24%	34%	Leicester
Man United	44%	24%	32%	Liverpool