CL: Matchweek 3

Interesting matches in Group A with Brugge vs Man City and PSG vs Leipzig. Man City have 97% chance if they win, 78% otherwise. Brugge have 44% if they win, 10% otherwise. Leipzig have 28% if they win, 3% otherwise. PSG have 95% if they win, 73% otherwise.

Other matches include Inter vs Sherif and Porto vs Milan.

 

Group A			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
2	4	Paris SG	10.9	(9-13)	3%	10%	44%	42%	87%
2	4	Brugge	6.5	(5-8)	28%	57%	12%	3%	15%
2	3	Man City	11.5	(10-13)	1%	8%	37%	53%	91%
2	0	RB Leipzig	4.5	(3-6)	68%	25%	6%	1%	7%

Group B			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
2	6	Liverpool	13	(11-15)	< 1%	3%	20%	76%	96%
2	4	Atletico	9.5	(8-11)	5%	22%	52%	21%	73%
2	1	Porto	5.8	(4-7)	40%	41%	17%	2%	19%
2	0	Milan	4.9	(3-7)	55%	34%	10%	1%	12%

Group C			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
2	6	Ajax	13	(11-15)	< 1%	3%	45%	53%	97%
2	6	Dortmund	12.7	(11-15)	< 1%	4%	49%	47%	96%
2	0	Besiktas	2.9	(1-4)	75%	24%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
2	0	Sporting	5.7	(4-7)	25%	70%	5%	< 1%	6%

Group D			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
2	6	Sheriff Tiraspol	7.8	(6-9)	16%	52%	23%	8%	31%
2	3	Real Madrid	11.5	(10-13)	3%	9%	21%	67%	88%
2	1	Inter	9.2	(8-11)	8%	22%	48%	23%	70%
2	1	Shakhtar	5.1	(4-7)	73%	17%	8%	2%	10%