World Cup: European qualifiers

Five group winners are already decided and in the other groups it looks like we will get a deciding group final in November.

Most interesting matches in November

Croatia vs Russia in Group H

- Russia have 100% if they win; 88.1% if draw; 31.3% if lose.

- Croatia have 92.7% if they win; 42.6% if draw; 25.2% if lose.

Netherlands vs Norway in Group G

- Norway have 90.8% if they win; 21.6% if draw; 5.4% if lose.

- Netherlands have 100% if they win; 91.5% if draw; 49% if lose.

Italy vs Switzerland in Group C

- Italy have 99.1% if they win; 80.9% if draw; 60.6% if lose.

- Switzerland have 97.7% if they win; 70.8% if draw; 45.3% if lose.

Portugal vs Serbia in Group A

- Serbia have 100% if they win; 40% if draw; 31.7% if lose.

- Portugal have 100% if they win; 95.9% if draw; 61.8% if lose.

Spain vs Sweden in Group B

- Sweden have 100% if they win; 85.1% if draw; 50.8% if lose.

- Spain have 93.6% if they win; 73.4% if draw; 60% if lose.

Group A
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Portugal	6	16	20.7	(20-22)	12%	88%	12%	11%	8%	95%
Serbia	7	17	17.5	(17-18)	88%	12%	88%	59%	28%	40%
Luxembourg	6	6	8.13	(7-9)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Ireland	6	5	7.27	(6-8)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Azerbaijan	7	1	2.62	(1-4)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Portugal play Ireland followed by a final against Serbia. Portugal will need two draws or a win against Serbia.

Group B
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Sweden	6	15	17.7	(16-18)	60%	39%	60%	43%	24%	63%
Spain	6	13	17.6	(16-19)	37%	61%	39%	34%	25%	86%
Greece	6	9	11.7	(10-12)	3%	< 1%	3%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Georgia	7	4	4.7	(4-5)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Kosovo	7	4	4.63	(4-5)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

The winner between Spain and Sweden most likely win the group.

Group C
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Italy	6	14	18.5	(17-20)	28%	72%	28%	24%	17%	89%
Switzerland	6	14	17.4	(17-18)	72%	28%	72%	54%	31%	60%
Bulgaria	7	8	8.25	(8-8)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Northern Ireland	6	5	7.75	(7-8)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Lithuania	7	3	3.54	(3-4)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Italy and Switzerland play a group final before finishing the group against Bulgaria and Northern Ireland, respectively.

Group D
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
France	6	12	17.1	(16-18)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
Ukraine	7	9	10.6	(9-12)	49%	< 1%	49%	19%	10%	10%
Finland	6	8	9.89	(8-11)	23%	< 1%	23%	6%	3%	3%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	6	7	9.59	(8-11)	27%	< 1%	27%	5%	2%	2%
Kazakhstan	7	3	3.05	(3-3)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

France have won the group and Ukraine, Finland and Bosnia & Herzegovina fight over the playoff spot. Bosnia start playing Finland_followed by Ukraine, while Finland play France.

Group E
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Belgium	6	16	20.8	(20-22)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
Wales	6	11	14.5	(14-15)	48%	< 1%	100%	50%	27%	27%
Czechia	7	11	13.7	(14-14)	52%	< 1%	99%	38%	16%	16%
Estonia	6	4	4.27	(4-4)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Belarus	7	3	3.31	(3-3)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Wales and Czechia fight over the second spot. Both teams will most likely play the playoff regardless due to their NL results.

Group F
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Denmark	8	24	28.9	(28-30)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
Scotland	8	17	20.2	(20-21)	97%	< 1%	97%	33%	10%	10%
Israel	8	13	16.1	(16-17)	3%	< 1%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Austria	8	10	15	(14-16)	< 1%	< 1%	99%	30%	12%	12%
Faroe Islands	8	4	4.4	(4-4)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Moldova	8	1	1.56	(1-2)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Denmark have clinched Group win and Scotland will probably grab the second spot. They play Moldova and Denmark and only need a 3 points.

Group G
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Netherlands	8	19	23.6	(22-25)	10%	87%	10%	8%	5%	92%
Norway	8	17	20.3	(20-21)	40%	12%	40%	16%	6%	18%
Turkey	8	15	19.9	(19-21)	50%	< 1%	50%	28%	14%	14%
Montenegro	8	11	12.3	(11-14)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Latvia	8	5	6.8	(5-8)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Gibraltar	8	0	1.19	(0-3)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Netherlands will likely play a deciding group final in last round.

Group H
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Russia	8	19	22.4	(22-23)	56%	44%	56%	30%	12%	57%
Croatia	8	17	21.7	(21-23)	44%	56%	44%	26%	13%	69%
Slovakia	8	10	14.2	(13-16)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Slovenia	8	10	13.3	(13-14)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Cyprus	8	5	5.74	(5-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Malta	8	5	5.73	(5-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Russia and Croatia will play a deciding final in the last round. Before that Russia will play Cyprus and Croatia will play Malta.

Group I
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
England	8	20	25.7	(26-26)	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
Poland	8	17	21.7	(21-23)	98%	< 1%	98%	64%	30%	31%
Albania	8	15	18	(18-18)	1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Hungary	8	11	14.9	(14-15)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Andorra	8	6	6.25	(6-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
San Marino	8	0	0.0315	(0-0)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

England have most likely won the group and Poland will take the playoff spot.

Group J
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Germany	8	21	26.1	(25-27)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
Romania	8	13	17.4	(16-19)	78%	< 1%	78%	16%	5%	5%
North Macedonia	8	12	14.8	(13-16)	16%	< 1%	16%	3%	< 1%	< 1%
Armenia	8	12	14.3	(13-15)	6%	< 1%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Iceland	8	8	9.99	(8-11)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Liechtenstein	8	1	1.33	(1-1)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Germany have clinched the group win and Romania, North Macedonia and Armenia fight over the playoff spot.

Nation League Group Winners

NL Rank	Country	Group	NL spot	2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
1	France	D	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
2	Belgium	E	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
3	Italy	C	< 1%	28%	72%	28%	24%	17%	89%
4	Spain	B	3%	37%	61%	39%	34%	25%	86%
5	Wales	E	52%	48%	< 1%	100%	50%	27%	27%
6	Austria	F	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	30%	12%	12%
7	Czechia	E	47%	52%	< 1%	99%	38%	16%	16%
11	Albania	I	< 1%	1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
12	Armenia	J	< 1%	6%	< 1%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Austria will likely take one playoff spot and the third team from Group E, Wales or Czechia, take the other one.

Runner-ups

2nd	Team	Group	Seeded	Points when 2nd	Min	Max	GD
12%	Portugal	A	100%	18.2	16	19	12.1
88%	Serbia	A	100%	17.2	17	18	5.9
< 1%	Belgium	E	100%	16	16	16	14.6
< 1%	England	I	100%	17.2	17	20	14.9
60%	Sweden	B	99%	16.9	15	18	7.6
72%	Switzerland	C	97%	16.8	14	18	9.4
28%	Italy	C	97%	16.5	14	18	10.3
37%	Spain	B	95%	16.2	13	17	9.2
3%	Greece	B	92%	15	13	15	4.7
98%	Poland	I	89%	15.8	11	17	10.3
10%	Netherlands	G	86%	15.5	13	16	10.4
56%	Russia	H	83%	15.6	13	17	3.7
48%	Wales	E	70%	15.5	12	17	4
50%	Turkey	G	66%	14.9	12	15	2.9
44%	Croatia	H	62%	14.3	11	17	7
1%	Albania	I	44%	13.8	12	15	0.5
97%	Scotland	F	40%	14.7	11	17	3.9
52%	Czechia	E	37%	14	11	14	6.1
40%	Norway	G	26%	14.2	11	15	2.6
23%	Finland	D	< 1%	11.9	11	14	0.8
6%	Armenia	J	< 1%	13.2	11	14	-1.5
3%	Israel	F	< 1%	12.3	11	13	2.1
78%	Romania	J	< 1%	12.2	10	13	2.1
< 1%	France	D	< 1%	12.7	12	13	3.1
49%	Ukraine	D	< 1%	11.8	10	12	2.7
27%	Bosnia and Herzegovina	D	< 1%	11.8	11	13	3.4
< 1%	Iceland	J	< 1%	8	8	8	-7.3
16%	North Macedonia	J	< 1%	10.8	8	12	1.4

First column shows probability that a country finish 2nd and the columns on the right hand side show points and chance they get seeded if the finish second.