World Cup: European qualifiers

 

Most interesting matches on Monday and Tuesday

Albania vs Poland in Group I

- Poland have 32.4% if they win; 21.2% if draw; 1.4% if lose.

- Albania have 8.7% if they win; 1.2% if draw; 0.1% if lose.

Sweden vs Greece in Group B

- Sweden have 63.2% if they win; 44.4% if draw; 27.8% if lose.

- Greece have 15.7% if they win; 2.6% if draw; 0.4% if lose.

- Spain have 91.8% if Greece win; 92.8% if draw; 85.5% if Sweden win.

Slovenia vs Russia in Group H

- Russia have 47.1% if they win; 34.8% if draw; 21.2% if lose.

- Croatia have 93.2% if Slovenia win; 85.1% if draw; 79.3% if Russia win.

- Slovenia have 0.9% if  they win; 0% otherwise.

Norway vs Montenegro in Group G

- Norway have 21.8% if they win; 6.5% if draw; 2.6% if lose.

- Turkey have 24.4% if Montenegro win; 22% if draw; 13.9% if Norway win.

- Netherlands have 97.8% if Montenegro win; 97% if draw; 92.4% if Norway win.

Croatia vs Slovakia in Group H

- Croatia have 90.3% if they win; 79% if draw; 70.5% if lose.

- Russia have 48.6% if Slovakia win; 41.9% if draw; 30.5% if Croatia win.

 

Group A
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Portugal	5	13	20.6	(19-22)	12%	87%	12%	11%	8%	95%
Serbia	6	14	17.2	(17-17)	87%	13%	87%	59%	28%	41%
Luxembourg	5	6	8.2	(7-9)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Ireland	6	5	7.28	(6-8)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Azerbaijan	6	1	2.86	(1-4)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group B
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Spain	6	13	17.5	(16-19)	31%	66%	34%	29%	21%	88%
Sweden	5	12	16.9	(16-18)	60%	32%	60%	43%	23%	56%
Greece	5	9	12.3	(11-13)	9%	1%	9%	4%	1%	3%
Kosovo	6	4	6.25	(5-7)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Georgia	6	1	2.86	(1-4)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Sweden host Greece in a critical match.

Group C
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Italy	6	14	18.5	(17-20)	24%	76%	24%	20%	15%	91%
Switzerland	5	11	16.9	(16-18)	76%	24%	76%	57%	34%	58%
Northern Ireland	5	5	9.03	(8-11)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Bulgaria	6	5	6.75	(5-8)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Lithuania	6	3	3.86	(3-4)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Italy play Switzerland in November which will more or less decide Group C

Group D
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
France	6	12	17.1	(16-18)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
Ukraine	6	8	11.9	(11-14)	69%	< 1%	69%	30%	15%	15%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	5	6	9.16	(7-10)	22%	< 1%	22%	5%	2%	2%
Finland	5	5	9.07	(8-11)	8%	< 1%	8%	2%	< 1%	1%
Kazakhstan	6	3	3.69	(3-4)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

France will win Group D, while Ukraine, B&H and Finland fight over the playoff spot.

Group E
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Belgium	6	16	20.8	(20-22)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
Wales	5	8	13.9	(13-15)	63%	< 1%	100%	55%	29%	30%
Czechia	6	8	12.6	(11-14)	37%	< 1%	98%	38%	17%	17%
Estonia	5	4	4.67	(4-5)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Belarus	6	3	4.19	(3-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Belgium will win the group. Wales will likely both play the playoff as they have good NL results.

Group F
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Denmark	7	21	28.3	(27-30)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
Scotland	7	14	19.5	(18-21)	88%	< 1%	88%	32%	11%	11%
Israel	7	10	15.8	(15-17)	8%	< 1%	8%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Austria	7	10	15.5	(14-16)	4%	< 1%	99%	32%	14%	14%
Faroe Islands	7	4	4.91	(4-5)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Moldova	7	1	1.82	(1-2)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Denmark will win Group F and Scotland are in a good position for the second spot after a late winner against Israel.

Group G
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Netherlands	7	16	23.6	(22-25)	9%	89%	9%	7%	4%	94%
Norway	7	14	19.6	(18-20)	40%	9%	40%	18%	8%	17%
Turkey	7	12	19.4	(18-21)	51%	1%	51%	31%	15%	16%
Montenegro	7	11	12.8	(11-14)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Latvia	7	5	7.12	(6-8)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Gibraltar	7	0	1.2	(0-3)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Norway play Montenegro in an important match. Netherlands are likely to win Group G but play Norway in the last match so Norway can pass them there.

Group H
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Croatia	7	16	22.9	(22-25)	21%	79%	21%	13%	7%	86%
Russia	7	16	20.9	(19-22)	75%	21%	75%	34%	14%	35%
Slovenia	7	10	14.6	(13-16)	4%	< 1%	4%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Slovakia	7	9	13.8	(12-15)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Cyprus	7	4	6.86	(5-8)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Malta	7	4	5.4	(4-7)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

A tight race between Croatia and Russia. Russia play Slovenia (away) where Slovenia have to win to still have any chance. Croatia play Slovakia. In the last round in November Croatia and Russia play whicg likely will be a decider.

Group I
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
England	7	19	27	(26-28)	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
Poland	7	14	20.6	(20-23)	71%	< 1%	71%	46%	23%	23%
Albania	7	15	18.9	(18-20)	28%	< 1%	28%	9%	2%	2%
Hungary	7	10	14.3	(13-16)	< 1%	< 1%	5%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Andorra	7	3	4.96	(4-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
San Marino	7	0	1.09	(0-3)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

England will most likely win Group I. Albania against Poland on Tuesday in a critical match. Since likely need to win that match since they have are going to Wembley in November while Poland play Andorra and Hungary.

Group J
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Germany	7	18	25.2	(24-27)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
Romania	7	10	16.3	(15-19)	47%	< 1%	47%	10%	3%	3%
North Macedonia	7	12	15.5	(14-17)	31%	< 1%	31%	6%	2%	2%
Armenia	7	12	15.1	(13-16)	21%	< 1%	21%	5%	1%	1%
Iceland	7	5	9.79	(8-11)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Liechtenstein	7	1	1.48	(1-2)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Germany will win Group J. A tight race between Romania, North Macedonia, and Armenia.

The table below show the probabilities for which two teams that will qualify for the playoff through their NL results. The highest ranked teams in the list below that do not finish 1st or 2nd in their group will qualify to the playoff via NL. Span has a small probability to finish 3rd. But most likely Austria will take the NL spot and either Wales or Czechia from Group E.

Nation League Group Winners

NL Rank	Country	Group	NL spot	2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
1	France	D	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
2	Belgium	E	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
3	Italy	C	< 1%	24%	76%	24%	20%	15%	91%
4	Spain	B	3%	31%	66%	34%	29%	21%	88%
5	Wales	E	37%	63%	< 1%	100%	55%	29%	30%
6	Austria	F	94%	4%	< 1%	99%	32%	14%	14%
7	Czechia	E	62%	37%	< 1%	98%	38%	17%	17%
8	Hungary	I	4%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
9	Slovenia	H	< 1%	4%	< 1%	4%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Montenegro	G	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Albania	I	< 1%	28%	< 1%	28%	9%	2%	2%
12	Armenia	J	< 1%	21%	< 1%	21%	5%	1%	1%

The six best runner-ups will be seeded in the playoff, which means avoid each other and get home advantage in the first round. The first column below show the probability that the team finish 2nd. The columns on the right hand side show the various stats when the team finish 2nd in the simulations such as how often they are seeded, average point, min point, max point and average goal difference.

Runner-ups

2nd	Team	Group	Seeded	Points when 2nd	Min	Max	GD
< 1%	Belgium	E	100%	16	16	17	14.3
< 1%	England	I	100%	16.7	14	20	14.2
12%	Portugal	A	99%	17.9	13	19	10.5
< 1%	Denmark	F	99%	15.8	15	18	11
24%	Italy	C	98%	16.4	14	18	10.2
87%	Serbia	A	97%	16.8	14	18	6.5
< 1%	Germany	J	97%	15.3	12	18	10.8
31%	Spain	B	96%	16.1	13	17	9.1
60%	Sweden	B	95%	16.4	12	18	7.4
76%	Switzerland	C	92%	16.3	11	18	7.6
71%	Poland	I	88%	15.4	10	17	11.1
< 1%	Luxembourg	A	87%	15	13	15	0.4
9%	Netherlands	G	86%	15.3	11	17	10.2
9%	Greece	B	85%	15	12	18	5.1
51%	Turkey	G	71%	14.5	9	17	4.3
21%	Croatia	H	70%	14.9	10	19	7
28%	Albania	I	70%	14.8	11	18	0.1
63%	Wales	E	62%	14.7	9	17	4.6
75%	Russia	H	49%	14.4	10	19	3.7
88%	Scotland	F	48%	14.2	11	17	4.6
37%	Czechia	E	44%	13.5	9	14	5.7
40%	Norway	G	43%	14	9	15	3.8
< 1%	Northern Ireland	C	41%	13.3	11	14	4.8
< 1%	Slovakia	H	31%	13.8	12	14	4.5
4%	Slovenia	H	27%	13.2	10	16	2.6
21%	Armenia	J	22%	13.8	10	17	-1.5
< 1%	France	D	17%	13.3	12	15	4
69%	Ukraine	D	16%	12.7	10	14	3.8
< 1%	Montenegro	G	9%	13	9	16	-0.4
22%	Bosnia and Herzegovina	D	7%	12.2	10	15	2.9
31%	North Macedonia	J	7%	11.6	7	17	1.5
8%	Finland	D	6%	12.2	10	14	1.9
< 1%	Hungary	I	4%	13	10	13	1
8%	Israel	F	3%	11.8	8	13	2
47%	Romania	J	1%	12	8	13	2.9
4%	Austria	F	1%	12	8	13	-1
< 1%	Bulgaria	C	< 1%	11	11	11	0.2
< 1%	Estonia	E	< 1%	10.4	10	13	-7.7
< 1%	Iceland	J	< 1%	8	8	8	-7.5