PL: Matchday 12

 

Hot Teams
West Ham: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 5.0 more than expected
Wolves: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 more than expected
Crystal Palace: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 more than expected

Cold Teams
Everton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 5.5 less than expected
Brentford: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 5.5 less than expected
Man United: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 4.1 less than expected

Likely combination of teams in CL

Probability	Teams
24.6%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
24.3%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, West Ham
19.2%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
6.6%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
6.2%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, West Ham

Simulated points for winner: 82 - 88
Simulated points for fourth: 65 - 70
Simulated points for 17th team: 37 - 40

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
26	Man City	81.7	+52	< 1%	>99.99%	99.97%	99.87%	99.43%	46%	< 1%	< 1%	99.54%
29	Chelsea	79.0	+49	< 1%	99.97%	99.87%	99.51%	98.2%	27%	< 1%	1.1%	98.4%
25	Liverpool	78.6	+54	< 1%	99.97%	99.88%	99.55%	98.4%	26%	< 1%	< 1%	98.6%
17	Man United	62.5	+14	< 1%	85%	74%	56%	32%	< 1%	17%	25%	36%
20	West Ham	61.9	+15	< 1%	83%	70%	52%	29%	< 1%	16%	22%	39%
20	Arsenal	61.8	+5	< 1%	80%	67%	49%	27%	< 1%	19%	25%	27%
19	Tottenham	57.5	-2	< 1%	57%	40%	23%	9%	< 1%	14%	37%	9%
15	Leicester	52.5	-3	< 1%	27%	15%	7%	2.3%	< 1%	9%	15%	6%
19	Wolves	51.1	-7	1.5%	19%	10%	4.6%	1.4%	< 1%	7%	7%	1.4%
17	Brighton	48.9	-9	3.2%	12%	6%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	4.5%	5%	< 1%
15	Everton	48.7	-7	3.6%	12%	6%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	4.5%	6%	< 1%
16	Crystal Palace	46.9	-7	6%	8%	3.7%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	2.9%	4.3%	< 1%
13	Aston Villa	45.7	-10	9%	5%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.0%	4.1%	< 1%
11	Leeds	45.4	-12	10%	5%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%	4.2%	< 1%
14	Southampton	43.4	-14	16%	2.6%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.2%	< 1%
13	Brentford	42.7	-12	18%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.1%	< 1%
13	Watford	40.6	-19	29%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%
9	Burnley	37.2	-19	50%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%
6	Newcastle	34.2	-26	70%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%
8	Norwich	31.6	-41	84%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Arsenal	66%	19%	15%	Newcastle
Liverpool	78%	13%	8%	Southampton
Norwich	35%	24%	40%	Wolves
Crystal Palace	45%	24%	31%	Aston Villa
Brighton	47%	24%	29%	Leeds
Man City	68%	18%	14%	West Ham
Burnley	36%	24%	40%	Tottenham
Leicester	62%	20%	18%	Watford
Brentford	43%	24%	33%	Everton
Chelsea	56%	22%	22%	Man United