PL: Norwich with a must needed win against Brentford

 

Hot Teams
West Ham: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 4.2 more than expected
Southampton: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 more than expected
Wolves: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 more than expected

Cold Teams
Aston Villa: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 5.9 less than expected
Everton: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 4.8 less than expected
Man United: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 less than expected

Likely combination of teams in CL

Probability	Teams
27.1%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
24.5%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, West Ham
17.1%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
6.7%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, West Ham
3.8%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham

Simulated points for winner: 81 - 87
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 37 - 40

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
23	Man City	81.1	+51	< 1%	99.98%	99.94%	99.75%	99.0%	49%	< 1%	< 1%	99.17%
22	Liverpool	77.8	+51	< 1%	99.92%	99.75%	99.11%	96.9%	26%	< 1%	1.7%	97.4%
26	Chelsea	77.6	+46	< 1%	99.90%	99.65%	98.8%	96.1%	24%	< 1%	2.2%	96.5%
17	Man United	64.2	+18	< 1%	89%	80%	63%	38%	< 1%	16%	25%	42%
20	West Ham	63.2	+16	< 1%	85%	74%	56%	32%	< 1%	16%	22%	41%
20	Arsenal	62.4	+8	< 1%	81%	68%	48%	26%	< 1%	20%	26%	26%
16	Tottenham	56.4	-3	< 1%	48%	30%	16%	6%	< 1%	12%	35%	6%
15	Leicester	53.7	-0	< 1%	32%	18%	8%	2.8%	< 1%	10%	16%	7%
17	Brighton	49.9	-8	2.3%	15%	7%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	6%	< 1%
16	Wolves	49.5	-8	2.7%	13%	6%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	4.8%	5%	< 1%
15	Everton	49.2	-6	3.0%	13%	6%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	4.7%	6%	< 1%
15	Crystal Palace	47.1	-8	6%	8%	3.4%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	2.9%	3.9%	< 1%
11	Leeds	46.4	-12	8%	6%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.3%	4.6%	< 1%
14	Southampton	44.7	-13	11%	3.7%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	3.2%	< 1%
10	Aston Villa	44.4	-11	12%	3.5%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	3.8%	< 1%
12	Brentford	42.9	-13	17%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	< 1%
10	Watford	38.6	-23	41%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.4%	< 1%
8	Burnley	37.8	-18	44%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	< 1%
5	Newcastle	34.9	-25	64%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	< 1%
5	Norwich	30.1	-42	88%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%	< 1%