World Cup: European qualifiers

 

Most interesting matches tonight

Malta vs Croatia in Group H

- Russia have 50.7% if Croatia win; 92.1% otherwise.

- Croatia have 74.6% if they win; 36.7% if draw; 31.5% if lose.

Greece vs Spain in Group B

- Sweden have 53.1% if Spain win; 84% otherwise.

- Spain have 91.6% if they win; 72.6% if draw; 69.2% if lose.

- Greece have 2.8% if  they win; 0% otherwise.

Georgia vs Sweden in Group B

- Sweden have 69.7% if they win; 50.6% if draw; 48.2% if lose.

- Spain have 92.9% if Georgia win; 92.4% if draw; 81.4% if Sweden win.

Russia vs Cyprus in Group H

- Russia have 60.8% if they win; 35.4% if draw; 32.3% if lose.

- Croatia have 66.3% if Russia win; 83.3% otherwise.

Ireland vs Portugal in Group A

- Portugal have 90.4% if  they lose; 96.1% otherwise.

- Serbia have 49.7% if Ireland win; 39.2% otherwise.

 

Group A
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Portugal	6	16	20.7	(20-22)	12%	88%	12%	11%	8%	95%
Serbia	7	17	17.5	(17-18)	88%	12%	88%	59%	28%	40%
Luxembourg	6	6	8.12	(7-9)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Ireland	6	5	7.28	(6-8)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Azerbaijan	7	1	2.64	(1-4)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Group B
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Sweden	6	15	17.6	(16-18)	61%	39%	61%	44%	23%	62%
Spain	6	13	17.6	(16-19)	36%	61%	39%	33%	25%	86%
Greece	6	9	11.7	(10-12)	3%	< 1%	3%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Georgia	7	4	4.71	(4-5)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Kosovo	7	4	4.64	(4-5)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Group H
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Russia	8	19	22.4	(22-23)	56%	44%	56%	31%	12%	56%
Croatia	8	17	21.7	(21-23)	44%	56%	44%	26%	13%	69%
Slovakia	8	10	14.2	(13-16)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Slovenia	8	10	13.3	(13-14)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Cyprus	8	5	5.73	(5-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Malta	8	5	5.72	(5-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

The two highest ranked countries below that do not finish 1st or 2nd in the group will join the playoff. Most likely it will be Austria plus the country that finish third in Group E (Wales or Czechia).

Nation League Group Winners

NL Rank	Country	Group	NL spot	2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
1	France	D	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
2	Belgium	E	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
3	Italy	C	< 1%	28%	72%	28%	24%	17%	89%
4	Spain	B	2%	36%	61%	39%	33%	25%	86%
5	Wales	E	52%	48%	< 1%	100%	51%	27%	27%
6	Austria	F	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	30%	13%	13%
7	Czechia	E	47%	52%	< 1%	99%	37%	16%	16%
8	Hungary	I	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Montenegro	G	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Albania	I	< 1%	1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
12	Armenia	J	< 1%	6%	< 1%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Six runner-ups get seeded in the playoff. The table below shows the probabilities for the different countries to be seeded

Runner-ups

2nd	Team	Group	Seeded	Points when 2nd	Min	Max	GD
< 1%	Belgium	E	100%	16	16	17	14.3
< 1%	England	I	100%	17.3	17	20	15
88%	Serbia	A	100%	17.2	17	18	5.9
12%	Portugal	A	100%	18.1	16	19	12
61%	Sweden	B	98%	16.9	15	18	7.6
72%	Switzerland	C	97%	16.7	14	18	9.4
28%	Italy	C	97%	16.6	14	18	10.3
36%	Spain	B	95%	16.1	13	17	9.2
3%	Greece	B	89%	15	13	15	4.8
98%	Poland	I	89%	15.8	11	17	10.3
10%	Netherlands	G	87%	15.5	13	16	10.4
56%	Russia	H	83%	15.6	13	17	3.7
48%	Wales	E	69%	15.5	12	17	4
48%	Turkey	G	68%	14.9	12	15	3
44%	Croatia	H	62%	14.3	11	17	7
1%	Albania	I	49%	14.1	12	15	0.7
97%	Scotland	F	39%	14.7	11	17	3.9
52%	Czechia	E	36%	13.9	11	14	6
41%	Norway	G	31%	14.2	11	15	3.6
23%	Finland	D	< 1%	11.9	11	14	0.7
3%	Israel	F	< 1%	12.4	11	13	2.1
6%	Armenia	J	< 1%	13.2	10	14	-1.5
< 1%	France	D	< 1%	12.7	12	13	3.2
78%	Romania	J	< 1%	12.2	10	13	2.1
28%	Bosnia and Herzegovina	D	< 1%	11.9	11	13	3.4
16%	North Macedonia	J	< 1%	10.9	8	12	1.4
49%	Ukraine	D	< 1%	11.8	10	12	2.7
< 1%	Montenegro	G	< 1%	11	11	11	-4
< 1%	Hungary	I	< 1%	11	11	11	0.4
< 1%	Iceland	J	< 1%	8	8	8	-7.6