World Cup: England extremely near Qatar

 Italy and Switzerland drew and the group will be decided in the last match on Monday. Italy play Northern Ireland away while Switzerland host Bulgaria. If both countries win, goal difference decides where Italy currently have 13-2 and Switzerland have 11-2.

Group C
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Switzerland	7	15	17.6	(18-18)	53%	47%	53%	41%	24%	71%
Italy	7	15	17.4	(16-18)	47%	53%	47%	40%	29%	82%
Northern Ireland	7	8	8.46	(8-9)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Bulgaria	7	8	8.25	(8-8)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Lithuania	8	3	3	(3-3)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

In Group F, Denmark had already clinched group win. Scotland secured a place in playoff with a win against  Moldova. Austria had already clinched a playoff seat through their result in NL.

Group F
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Denmark	9	27	29	(28-30)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
Scotland	9	20	20.8	(20-21)	100%	< 1%	100%	32%	10%	10%
Austria	9	13	15.8	(16-16)	< 1%	< 1%	100%	30%	13%	13%
Israel	9	13	15.6	(16-16)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Faroe Islands	9	4	4.32	(4-4)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Moldova	9	1	1.12	(1-1)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

England have practically clinched the group win. For them to miss, they need to lose against San Marino, while Poland catch up 6 goals with a win against Hungary.

Group I
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
England	9	23	26	(26-26)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
Poland	9	20	21.9	(21-23)	100%	< 1%	100%	66%	32%	32%
Albania	9	15	17.8	(18-18)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Hungary	9	14	14.9	(14-15)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Andorra	9	6	6.14	(6-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
San Marino	9	0	0.0166	(0-0)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Below are the countries that can finish 2nd in their group, sorted with respect to the probability they get seeded if the finish 2nd. 6 runner-ups are seeded. Portugal or Serbia from group A will be seeded, as will Switzerland/Italy from Group C. The runner-up from group D (Ukraine, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Finland or France) and group J (North Macedonia or Romania) will not be seeded.

 
Runner-ups

2nd	Team	Group	Seeded	Points when 2nd	Min	Max	GD
11%	Portugal	A	100%	17	17	17	10.6
89%	Serbia	A	100%	17.2	17	18	5.9
< 1%	Belgium	E	100%	16	16	17	14.2
< 1%	England	I	100%	20	20	20	21
53%	Switzerland	C	100%	17.4	15	18	10.5
47%	Italy	C	100%	16.8	15	18	10.6
13%	Spain	B	100%	16	16	16	7.6
60%	Russia	H	99%	16	16	16	5.1
87%	Sweden	B	90%	15.2	15	16	5.1
100%	Poland	I	89%	15.9	14	17	9.8
10%	Netherlands	G	85%	15.5	13	16	10.4
40%	Croatia	H	76%	14.5	14	15	9.7
48%	Wales	E	66%	15.5	12	17	4
49%	Turkey	G	64%	14.9	12	15	2.9
100%	Scotland	F	36%	14.8	14	17	4
41%	Norway	G	27%	14.2	11	15	3.6
52%	Czechia	E	22%	13.9	11	14	6
23%	Finland	D	< 1%	11.9	11	14	0.7
< 1%	France	D	< 1%	12.7	12	13	3.2
49%	Ukraine	D	< 1%	11.8	10	12	2.7
27%	Bosnia and Herzegovina	D	< 1%	11.9	11	13	3.5
< 1%	Montenegro	G	< 1%	11	11	11	-0.3
42%	Romania	J	< 1%	11	11	11	1
58%	North Macedonia	J	< 1%	11.6	9	12	5.5