World Cup: Saudi Arabia can clinch world cup ticket in Japan

 

Iran and South Korea have practically clinched tickets to Qatar. UAE and Iraq fight over the third spot and playoff. Iraq have much easier schedule left with Lebanon and Syria plus UAE in March, compared with UAE who play Iran and South Korea plus Iraq in the possible decider.

Group A
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		3rd	2nd	1st	Round 4	Playoff	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Iran	7	19	25.3	(25-26)	< 1%	25%	75%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
South Korea	7	17	22.7	(21-24)	< 1%	75%	25%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
United Arab Emirates	7	9	10.6	(9-12)	47%	< 1%	< 1%	47%	7%	3%	3%
Iraq	7	4	9.74	(8-11)	41%	< 1%	< 1%	41%	16%	8%	8%
Lebanon	7	5	7.59	(6-9)	10%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Syria	7	2	5.34	(3-7)	2%	< 1%	< 1%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

 The three top teams won meaning Oman is almost out of qualifications. The three top teams all play each other leading to a very uncertain outcome. Saudi need 3 points to clinch qualifications and play Japan (home), China (away) and Australia (away). Japan play Saudi on Tuesday while Oman host Australia

Japan vs Saudi Arabia in Group B

- Japan have 92.5% if they win; 75.2% if draw; 68% if lose.

- Saudi Arabia have 100% if they win; 97.3% if draw; 85.8% if lose.

- Australia have 71.5% if Saudi Arabia win; 66.5% if draw; 58.6% if Japan win.

Oman vs Australia in Group B

- Australia have 70.6% if they win; 57.7% if draw; 47.7% if lose.

- Saudi Arabia have 95.3% if Oman win; 93.5% if draw; 85.3% if Australia win.

- Japan have 93.3% if Oman win; 87.4% if draw; 81.9% if Australia win.

- Oman have 1.4% if  they win; 0% otherwise.

Group B
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		3rd	2nd	1st	Round 4	Playoff	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Saudi Arabia	7	19	22.3	(20-23)	15%	34%	52%	15%	9%	4%	90%
Japan	7	15	21	(19-22)	24%	44%	33%	24%	19%	10%	86%
Australia	7	14	18.8	(17-20)	60%	23%	15%	60%	47%	23%	62%
Oman	7	7	11.1	(10-13)	1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
China	7	5	8.51	(7-10)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Vietnam	7	0	3.26	(2-4)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%