PL: Five teams are racing on the fourth CL spot

Five teams are racing on the fourth CL spot.

Hot Teams
Wolves: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 7.0 more than expected
Tottenham: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 more than expected
Man City: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 more than expected

Cold Teams
Everton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 5.5 less than expected
Watford: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 5.3 less than expected
Burnley: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.77%
Fifth team	100%	99.99%	2.4%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	75%
League cup winners	100%	99.91%	98.5%
Sixth team	>99.99%	85%	2.6%
Seventh team	88%	11%	2.8%
Eighth team	15%	7%	1.9%

Simulated points for winner: 88 - 93
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 34 - 37

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
57	Man City	90.0	+62	< 1%	100%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%	88%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
48	Liverpool	81.6	+59	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.97%	99.82%	11%	< 1%	< 1%	99.84%
47	Chelsea	74.9	+44	< 1%	99.98%	99.85%	99.18%	96.4%	< 1%	< 1%	3.1%	96.7%
38	Man United	65.4	+15	< 1%	95.3%	87%	68%	40%	< 1%	9%	44%	42%
36	Arsenal	64.5	+16	< 1%	92%	81%	61%	34%	< 1%	13%	44%	34%
36	Tottenham	63.0	+5	< 1%	85%	69%	45%	21%	< 1%	17%	46%	21%
34	West Ham	58.3	+12	< 1%	62%	35%	16%	5%	< 1%	23%	28%	14%
34	Wolves	56.1	+0	< 1%	39%	19%	8%	2.2%	< 1%	20%	17%	2.2%
26	Leicester	51.3	-3	< 1%	12%	4.7%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	25%	< 1%
30	Brighton	49.7	-4	< 1%	7%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.8%	2.8%	< 1%
26	Aston Villa	49.1	-5	< 1%	6%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.2%	1.7%	< 1%
25	Southampton	44.5	-12	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%
24	Crystal Palace	43.9	-7	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.1%	< 1%
22	Leeds	43.8	-20	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
19	Everton	41.3	-15	10%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%
23	Brentford	39.6	-20	14%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
12	Burnley	35.9	-17	38%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
15	Newcastle	32.7	-32	68%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Watford	31.9	-30	73%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	Norwich	29.7	-47	88%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%