PL: Leicester out of the CL race

Leicester with a more than ten points gap up to Tottenham and less than 1% chance to reach CL.  

Hot Teams
Wolves: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 4.9 more than expected
Man City: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 4.8 more than expected
Tottenham: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 4.0 more than expected

Cold Teams
Watford: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.1 less than expected
Burnley: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 less than expected
Newcastle: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.73%
Fifth team	100%	99.99%	2.7%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	74%
League cup winners	100%	97.1%	88%
Sixth team	99.70%	84%	2.9%
Seventh team	88%	13%	3.1%
Eighth team	17%	8%	1.7%

Simulated points for winner: 88 - 94
Simulated points for fourth: 67 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 38

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
56	Man City	91.1	+63	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	>99.99%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
45	Liverpool	80.5	+57	< 1%	>99.99%	99.99%	99.92%	99.57%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	99.63%
44	Chelsea	74.0	+43	< 1%	99.94%	99.62%	98.3%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	94%
35	Arsenal	65.7	+17	< 1%	94%	85%	68%	43%	< 1%	12%	40%	42%
35	Man United	64.3	+15	< 1%	92%	80%	58%	30%	< 1%	13%	47%	33%
36	Tottenham	63.7	+6	< 1%	88%	72%	49%	25%	< 1%	17%	46%	25%
34	West Ham	59.1	+12	< 1%	68%	41%	20%	7%	< 1%	24%	31%	16%
31	Wolves	54.4	-1	< 1%	27%	12%	4.4%	1.2%	< 1%	16%	12%	1.2%
25	Leicester	52.1	-2	< 1%	16%	6%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	26%	< 1%
29	Brighton	49.6	-5	< 1%	7%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5.0%	2.8%	< 1%
23	Aston Villa	47.1	-7	1.0%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
22	Leeds	45.7	-18	2.3%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
24	Crystal Palace	44.7	-5	2.5%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	2.2%	< 1%
24	Southampton	44.3	-13	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%
19	Everton	43.0	-14	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%
23	Brentford	41.1	-19	9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Burnley	35.5	-19	42%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Watford	33.7	-26	59%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
12	Newcastle	30.6	-34	81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	Norwich	27.6	-51	94%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Watford	55%	22%	23%	Norwich
Everton	48%	24%	28%	Aston Villa
Leeds	56%	22%	22%	Newcastle
Man United	57%	22%	22%	West Ham
Brentford	41%	24%	35%	Wolves
Southampton	18%	20%	61%	Man City
Arsenal	69%	18%	14%	Burnley
Leicester	54%	22%	24%	Brighton
Crystal Palace	22%	22%	57%	Liverpool
Chelsea	64%	19%	17%	Tottenham