PL: Chelsea with less than 1% chance to win premier league

Chelsea lost against City and now manage to win the league in less than 1% of the simulations.

Hot Teams
Wolves: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 4.9 more than expected
Man City: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 4.8 more than expected
Arsenal: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 more than expected

Cold Teams
Watford: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.1 less than expected
Burnley: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 less than expected
Newcastle: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.73%
Fifth team	100%	99.99%	2.8%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	74%
League cup winners	100%	97.4%	90%
Sixth team	99.72%	84%	2.9%
Seventh team	88%	13%	2.7%
Eighth team	17%	8%	1.7%

Simulated points for winner: 88 - 94
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 70
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 38

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
56	Man City	91.1	+63	< 1%	100%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%	92%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
45	Liverpool	80.5	+57	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.95%	99.67%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	99.70%
43	Chelsea	74.7	+44	< 1%	99.95%	99.75%	98.9%	95.9%	< 1%	< 1%	3.5%	96.2%
35	Arsenal	65.7	+17	< 1%	94%	87%	72%	48%	< 1%	10%	37%	48%
32	Man United	63.1	+13	< 1%	88%	74%	53%	26%	< 1%	13%	46%	29%
33	Tottenham	61.9	+4	< 1%	79%	62%	40%	18%	< 1%	18%	42%	18%
34	West Ham	59.1	+12	< 1%	68%	45%	24%	9%	< 1%	21%	33%	17%
31	Wolves	54.4	-1	< 1%	28%	14%	5%	1.5%	< 1%	15%	13%	1.5%
25	Leicester	53.7	-1	< 1%	26%	13%	5%	1.5%	< 1%	10%	30%	1.5%
28	Brighton	49.7	-6	< 1%	8%	3.2%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	3.5%	< 1%
23	Aston Villa	47.1	-7	1.1%	3.4%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	1.0%	< 1%
22	Leeds	45.7	-18	2.4%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
24	Crystal Palace	44.7	-5	2.6%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	2.3%	< 1%
24	Southampton	44.3	-13	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%
19	Everton	43.0	-14	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	< 1%
23	Brentford	42.1	-17	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Burnley	35.5	-19	42%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Watford	33.7	-26	59%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
12	Newcastle	30.6	-34	82%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	Norwich	27.6	-51	94%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Burnley	53%	23%	24%	Watford
Brighton	27%	23%	49%	Chelsea
Leicester	46%	24%	30%	Tottenham
Brentford	27%	23%	50%	Man United