PL: Norwich with less than 4% chance to avoid regulation.

Norwich avoid regulation in less than 4% of our simulations.

Hot Teams
Man City: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 4.3 more than expected
Arsenal: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 more than expected
Tottenham: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 more than expected

Cold Teams
Watford: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 4.9 less than expected
Norwich: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 4.2 less than expected
Burnley: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.76%
Fifth team	>99.99%	>99.99%	3.1%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	74%
League cup winners	100%	98.1%	92%
Sixth team	99.80%	84%	3.0%
Seventh team	88%	13%	2.6%
Eighth team	17%	8%	1.4%

Simulated points for winner: 87 - 93
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 38

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
53	Man City	90.0	+63	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	>99.99%	90%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
42	Liverpool	80.1	+57	< 1%	>99.99%	99.98%	99.89%	99.45%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	99.52%
43	Chelsea	75.5	+44	< 1%	99.96%	99.75%	98.9%	96.1%	1.5%	< 1%	3.3%	96.4%
35	Arsenal	65.8	+17	< 1%	94%	85%	69%	44%	< 1%	11%	39%	44%
31	Man United	63.6	+13	< 1%	88%	74%	52%	27%	< 1%	14%	45%	30%
33	Tottenham	61.9	+4	< 1%	78%	58%	36%	16%	< 1%	20%	41%	16%
34	West Ham	61.1	+14	< 1%	79%	57%	34%	14%	< 1%	20%	38%	22%
25	Leicester	53.7	-1	< 1%	24%	11%	4.6%	1.3%	< 1%	10%	29%	1.3%
28	Wolves	53.3	-2	< 1%	20%	9%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	9%	< 1%
27	Brighton	50.4	-5	< 1%	9%	3.9%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	4.0%	< 1%
22	Aston Villa	47.4	-7	1.2%	3.6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	1.1%	< 1%
24	Southampton	45.2	-12	2.5%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	1.7%	< 1%
23	Crystal Palace	44.8	-6	3.0%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	2.3%	< 1%
19	Everton	44.5	-13	4.2%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	2.0%	< 1%
19	Leeds	43.5	-20	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	Brentford	42.5	-16	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Burnley	35.5	-19	43%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	Watford	33.7	-27	60%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Newcastle	31.3	-33	77%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Norwich	25.9	-52	96.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Brighton	50%	23%	27%	Crystal Palace
Man City	59%	21%	20%	Chelsea
Newcastle	51%	23%	26%	Watford
Wolves	54%	22%	24%	Southampton
Burnley	39%	24%	36%	Leicester
Norwich	34%	24%	42%	Everton
Aston Villa	34%	24%	42%	Man United
Liverpool	80%	13%	7%	Brentford
West Ham	59%	21%	20%	Leeds
Tottenham	41%	24%	34%	Arsenal
Burnley	53%	23%	24%	Watford
Brighton	27%	23%	49%	Chelsea
Leicester	46%	24%	30%	Tottenham
Brentford	27%	23%	50%	Man United