PL: City 90% clinched the league

Man City win 90% of the simulations and on average take 10 points more than Liverpool. Leeds with a cushion after an important win against Burnley.

Hot Teams
Man City: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 4.3 more than expected
Arsenal: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 more than expected
Tottenham: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 more than expected

Cold Teams
Watford: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 4.9 less than expected
Norwich: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 4.2 less than expected
Burnley: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 less than expected

Fourth team play CL	99.74%
FA cup winners play EL	9%
League cup winners play ECL	9%

Simulated points for winner: 87 - 93
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 38

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
53	Man City	90.0	+63	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	>99.99%	90%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
42	Liverpool	80.1	+57	< 1%	>99.99%	99.98%	99.89%	99.44%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	99.51%
43	Chelsea	75.5	+44	< 1%	99.96%	99.77%	99.0%	96.2%	1.5%	< 1%	3.1%	96.5%
35	Arsenal	65.7	+17	< 1%	94%	85%	70%	45%	< 1%	11%	38%	45%
31	Man United	63.6	+13	< 1%	89%	74%	53%	27%	< 1%	14%	42%	30%
33	Tottenham	61.9	+4	< 1%	79%	60%	37%	17%	< 1%	23%	40%	17%
31	West Ham	60.4	+14	< 1%	75%	53%	31%	13%	< 1%	19%	33%	21%
25	Leicester	53.7	-1	< 1%	24%	12%	4.8%	1.3%	< 1%	10%	29%	1.3%
28	Wolves	53.3	-2	< 1%	21%	9%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	8%	< 1%
27	Brighton	50.4	-5	< 1%	10%	4.1%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	3.5%	< 1%
22	Aston Villa	47.4	-7	1.2%	3.8%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.4%	1.2%	< 1%
23	Crystal Palace	44.8	-6	3.0%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
19	Everton	44.5	-13	4.2%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	Southampton	44.0	-14	4.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
19	Leeds	43.5	-20	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	Brentford	43.4	-14	4.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Burnley	35.5	-19	43%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	Watford	33.8	-27	60%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Newcastle	31.3	-33	77%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Norwich	26.4	-52	95.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%