PL: Man City win 77% of simulations

Man City win the league in 77% of the simulations and now have a seven-point gap down to Liverpool in average points.

Hot Teams
Man City: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 more than expected
Arsenal: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 more than expected
Tottenham: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 more than expected

Cold Teams
Norwich: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 4.8 less than expected
Watford: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 less than expected
Leeds: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 1.9 less than expected

Fourth team play CL	99.74%
FA cup winners play EL	9%
League cup winners play ECL	11%

Simulated points for winner: 85 - 91
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 36 - 39

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
47	Man City	87.0	+61	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.98%	77%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%
41	Liverpool	80.3	+56	< 1%	>99.99%	99.99%	99.92%	99.41%	17%	< 1%	< 1%	99.49%
42	Chelsea	77.1	+46	< 1%	99.99%	99.92%	99.56%	97.8%	6%	< 1%	1.8%	98.0%
35	Arsenal	65.9	+16	< 1%	95.7%	89%	74%	46%	< 1%	9%	40%	46%
28	Man United	64.5	+14	< 1%	93%	83%	65%	35%	< 1%	10%	43%	38%
28	West Ham	60.0	+15	< 1%	78%	58%	32%	12%	< 1%	18%	36%	22%
30	Tottenham	58.6	+1	< 1%	65%	42%	21%	7%	< 1%	28%	32%	7%
25	Leicester	53.3	-1	< 1%	29%	14%	5%	1.2%	< 1%	11%	33%	1.2%
25	Wolves	50.5	-5	< 1%	14%	6%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	5%	< 1%
22	Aston Villa	48.2	-7	1.5%	8%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.3%	2.5%	< 1%
24	Brighton	47.8	-8	1.5%	7%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.8%	2.2%	< 1%
23	Crystal Palace	46.1	-5	2.9%	3.9%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.4%	1.2%	< 1%
19	Everton	46.0	-12	3.9%	4.0%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.4%	1.3%	< 1%
21	Southampton	43.4	-15	8%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	Leeds	43.2	-20	10%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Brentford	43.0	-14	9%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Burnley	37.4	-16	38%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	Watford	36.2	-24	49%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Newcastle	31.6	-33	81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Norwich	27.8	-49	95%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Brentford	17%	20%	63%	Man City
Everton	56%	22%	22%	Newcastle
Man United	69%	18%	14%	Burnley
Arsenal	32%	24%	44%	Man City
Leicester	64%	19%	16%	Norwich
Watford	38%	24%	38%	Tottenham
Crystal Palace	37%	24%	39%	West Ham
Everton	51%	23%	26%	Brighton
Leeds	55%	22%	23%	Burnley
Southampton	52%	23%	25%	Newcastle
Brentford	43%	24%	33%	Aston Villa
Chelsea	45%	24%	31%	Liverpool
Man United	64%	19%	16%	Wolves