PL: Arsenal up in top-4 in expected points

Tottenham, City and Arsenalkeep going strong. Arsenal are now top 4 in expected points and have passed Man United with 0.7 points.

Hot Teams
Tottenham: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 4.2 more than expected
Man City: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 more than expected
Arsenal: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 more than expected

Cold Teams
Norwich: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.9 less than expected
West Ham: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 3.0 less than expected
Crystal Palace: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.1 less than expected

There is a 1 in 400 chance that two English teams outside top-4 win both CL and EL meaning 4th team in PL misses out on CL. There is a 9 in 100 chance that FA cup winners are not already qualified for CL and thereby will play EL. There is a 10 in 100 chance that the league cup winners are not already qualified for CL or EL and thereby will play ECL.

Fourth team play CL	99.75%
FA cup winners play EL	9%
League cup winners play ECL	10%

Simulated points for winner: 86 - 91
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 72
Simulated points for 17th team: 36 - 39

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
47	Man City	87.0	+61	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.97%	69%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%
41	Liverpool	82.1	+58	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.96%	99.65%	24%	< 1%	< 1%	99.70%
41	Chelsea	78.4	+47	< 1%	>99.99%	99.96%	99.75%	98.4%	8%	< 1%	1.3%	98.6%
35	Arsenal	65.9	+16	< 1%	96.4%	90%	75%	45%	< 1%	9%	43%	45%
27	Man United	65.2	+15	< 1%	95%	87%	71%	40%	< 1%	9%	43%	42%
29	Tottenham	58.9	+0	< 1%	70%	48%	23%	8%	< 1%	27%	36%	8%
25	West Ham	58.6	+12	< 1%	72%	50%	24%	8%	< 1%	20%	33%	18%
22	Leicester	51.3	-3	< 1%	21%	9%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	29%	< 1%
25	Wolves	50.5	-5	< 1%	16%	7%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	6%	< 1%
22	Aston Villa	48.2	-7	1.7%	9%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	2.9%	< 1%
23	Brighton	47.3	-9	2.3%	7%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.0%	2.2%	< 1%
19	Everton	46.0	-12	4.3%	4.8%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.9%	1.4%	< 1%
20	Crystal Palace	45.1	-7	5%	3.5%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.3%	1.0%	< 1%
20	Southampton	43.9	-15	8%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
16	Leeds	43.2	-20	11%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Brentford	43.0	-14	10%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Burnley	37.4	-16	40%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	Watford	37.3	-21	41%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Newcastle	31.6	-34	82%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Norwich	28.5	-47	93%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Newcastle	27%	23%	49%	Man United
Southampton	41%	24%	35%	Tottenham
Watford	31%	24%	45%	West Ham
Crystal Palace	60%	21%	19%	Norwich
Leicester	25%	23%	52%	Liverpool
Chelsea	73%	16%	11%	Brighton
Brentford	17%	20%	63%	Man City
Everton	56%	22%	22%	Newcastle
Man United	69%	18%	14%	Burnley