PL: City building a gap

Both Chelsea and Liverpool drew and City are building a gap down to competitors. City are winning the title in 66% of the simulations. Tottenham are up as hot team after a point against Liverpool and 11 points in the last 5 matches, 3 more than expected.

Hot Teams
Man City: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 4.0 more than expected
Aston Villa: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 3.6 more than expected
Tottenham: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 more than expected

Cold Teams
Norwich: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 less than expected
Brighton: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 less than expected
Crystal Palace: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 less than expected

Likely combination of teams in CL

Probability	Teams
34.4%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
27.9%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
14.4%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, West Ham
6.7%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, West Ham
5%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham

Simulated points for winner: 85 - 91
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 36 - 39

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
44	Man City	86.4	+60	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.96%	66%	< 1%	< 1%	99.97%
41	Liverpool	82.1	+58	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.96%	99.68%	27%	< 1%	< 1%	99.73%
38	Chelsea	77.2	+46	< 1%	99.99%	99.90%	99.44%	97.4%	7%	< 1%	2.0%	97.7%
27	Man United	65.2	+15	< 1%	94%	86%	70%	42%	< 1%	11%	37%	45%
32	Arsenal	64.6	+12	< 1%	93%	84%	65%	36%	< 1%	13%	42%	36%
25	West Ham	60.7	+14	< 1%	82%	64%	38%	16%	< 1%	18%	34%	28%
26	Tottenham	57.7	-2	< 1%	61%	38%	19%	7%	< 1%	20%	34%	6%
22	Leicester	51.8	-2	< 1%	23%	10%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	26%	< 1%
25	Wolves	50.5	-5	< 1%	15%	6%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	6%	< 1%
22	Aston Villa	49.2	-5	1.2%	12%	4.6%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	3.9%	< 1%
20	Brighton	46.1	-11	3.9%	4.8%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.9%	2.1%	< 1%
19	Everton	46.0	-12	4.2%	4.5%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	2.5%	< 1%
20	Crystal Palace	46.0	-5	3.9%	5%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.1%	2.4%	< 1%
20	Brentford	44.0	-13	8%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	1.3%	< 1%
16	Leeds	43.2	-20	11%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Southampton	41.5	-18	16%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Burnley	37.4	-16	39%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	Watford	37.4	-21	41%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Newcastle	31.6	-34	81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Norwich	29.6	-43	90%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%