PL: City, Pool & Villa remain the teams that take more points than expected.

Man City, Liverpool, and Aston Villa remain the teams that take more points than expected.

 Hot Teams
Man City: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 3.9 more than expected
Liverpool: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 3.8 more than expected
Aston Villa: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 3.6 more than expected

Cold Teams
Norwich: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 less than expected
Brighton: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 less than expected
Crystal Palace: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 less than expected

Likely combination of teams in CL

Probability	Teams
38.1%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
22%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
16.4%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, West Ham
7.3%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, West Ham
5.9%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham

Simulated points for winner: 85 - 91
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 36 - 39

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
41	Man City	85.5	+57	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.93%	57%	< 1%	< 1%	99.95%
40	Liverpool	82.9	+58	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.97%	99.78%	34%	< 1%	< 1%	99.81%
37	Chelsea	77.9	+47	< 1%	99.98%	99.92%	99.59%	98.2%	9%	< 1%	1.5%	98.3%
27	Man United	65.2	+15	< 1%	95%	87%	72%	46%	< 1%	10%	35%	48%
29	Arsenal	63.0	+9	< 1%	89%	77%	56%	28%	< 1%	15%	43%	28%
25	West Ham	60.7	+14	< 1%	82%	65%	41%	18%	< 1%	17%	34%	30%
25	Tottenham	57.7	-2	< 1%	61%	39%	21%	8%	< 1%	19%	34%	8%
22	Leicester	51.8	-2	< 1%	24%	11%	4.3%	1.1%	< 1%	10%	26%	1.1%
24	Wolves	50.5	-6	< 1%	16%	7%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	7%	< 1%
22	Aston Villa	49.2	-5	1.3%	12%	5%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	4.2%	< 1%
20	Brighton	46.1	-11	4.2%	4.9%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.9%	2.2%	< 1%
20	Crystal Palace	46.0	-5	4.2%	5%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.1%	2.6%	< 1%
19	Everton	46.0	-12	4.6%	4.7%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	2.6%	< 1%
16	Leeds	44.5	-17	8%	3.0%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	1.4%	< 1%
20	Brentford	44.0	-13	8%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	1.4%	< 1%
17	Southampton	41.5	-17	17%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Burnley	37.4	-16	41%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	Watford	37.4	-21	42%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Newcastle	32.3	-31	78%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Norwich	29.6	-43	90%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Aston Villa	54%	22%	24%	Burnley
Leeds	37%	24%	39%	Arsenal
Wolves	26%	23%	51%	Chelsea
Newcastle	16%	19%	64%	Man City
Tottenham	26%	23%	51%	Liverpool