PL: Liverpool hottest team in the league

 Both Liverpool and Man City have won the last five matches.

Hot Teams
Liverpool: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 4.2 more than expected
Man City: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 3.9 more than expected
Aston Villa: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 more than expected

Cold Teams
Southampton: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 less than expected
Brighton: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 less than expected
Crystal Palace: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.2 less than expected

Likely combination of teams in CL

Probability	Teams
38.5%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
21.7%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, West Ham
17.4%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
7.6%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, West Ham
6%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham

Simulated points for winner: 85 - 90
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 36 - 39

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
38	Man City	85.0	+52	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.99%	99.90%	52%	< 1%	< 1%	99.92%
37	Liverpool	82.4	+59	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.95%	99.69%	33%	< 1%	< 1%	99.74%
36	Chelsea	79.3	+48	< 1%	>99.99%	99.95%	99.76%	98.8%	15%	< 1%	< 1%	98.9%
27	Man United	65.2	+15	< 1%	95%	88%	72%	46%	< 1%	10%	35%	49%
26	Arsenal	61.8	+8	< 1%	85%	70%	47%	22%	< 1%	17%	43%	22%
25	West Ham	61.7	+16	< 1%	86%	72%	50%	24%	< 1%	15%	35%	34%
25	Tottenham	57.7	-2	< 1%	62%	40%	21%	8%	< 1%	19%	35%	8%
22	Leicester	51.8	-2	< 1%	25%	12%	4.4%	1.1%	< 1%	11%	26%	1.1%
21	Wolves	48.7	-7	1.8%	11%	4.6%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	5.0%	< 1%
20	Brighton	47.8	-9	2.7%	9%	3.6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	4.9%	3.5%	< 1%
19	Aston Villa	47.6	-7	3.0%	9%	3.4%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.8%	3.0%	< 1%
19	Crystal Palace	46.8	-4	3.8%	7%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.2%	3.2%	< 1%
18	Everton	45.5	-13	6%	4.3%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	2.5%	< 1%
16	Leeds	45.0	-12	7%	4.0%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.3%	1.7%	< 1%
20	Brentford	44.0	-13	9%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.5%	1.4%	< 1%
16	Southampton	41.5	-18	19%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Burnley	37.4	-16	42%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	Watford	37.4	-21	43%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Newcastle	32.6	-31	77%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Norwich	30.9	-41	86%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Brentford	28%	24%	48%	Man United
Norwich	37%	24%	39%	Aston Villa
Man City	76%	14%	9%	Leeds
Burnley	51%	23%	26%	Watford
Brighton	47%	24%	29%	Wolves
Crystal Palace	52%	23%	25%	Southampton
Arsenal	51%	23%	26%	West Ham
Leicester	49%	23%	28%	Tottenham
Chelsea	72%	16%	11%	Everton
Liverpool	80%	12%	7%	Newcastle