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Group winners Roma, Rennes and Feyernord all have more than 10%, but Leicester win most of the simulations although they need to play another round.
| Chance in Group | Stage-by-stage Probabilities | ||||||||
| Group | Team | 2nd | 1st | Last 24 | Last 16 | QF | Semi | Final | Champ |
| Leicester | 100% | 80% | 57% | 41% | 28% | 17% | |||
| C | Roma | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 66% | 41% | 24% | 13% |
| G | Rennes | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 65% | 40% | 23% | 12% |
| E | Feyenoord | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 65% | 39% | 22% | 11% |
| PSV | 100% | 74% | 50% | 32% | 19% | 10% | |||
| G | Tottenham | 57% | < 1% | 57% | 42% | 30% | 21% | 14% | 9% |
| D | Alkmaar | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 57% | 28% | 13% | 6% |
| Marseille | 100% | 66% | 38% | 20% | 10% | 4.7% | |||
| E | Slavia Praha | 100% | < 1% | 100% | 58% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 4.0% |
| F | FC Kobenhavn | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 45% | 19% | 7% | 2.6% |
| H | Basel | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 43% | 16% | 5% | 1.9% |
| C | Bodoe Glimt | 100% | < 1% | 100% | 49% | 23% | 10% | 4.0% | 1.6% |
| B | Gent | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 40% | 13% | 4.1% | 1.3% |
| Midtjylland | 100% | 53% | 22% | 8% | 3.0% | 1.1% | |||
| B | Partizan | 100% | < 1% | 100% | 45% | 19% | 8% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| A | LASK | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 36% | 11% | 3.1% | < 1% |
| Celtic | 100% | 50% | 19% | 7% | 2.2% | < 1% | |||
| Sparta Praha | 100% | 49% | 18% | 6% | 2.0% | < 1% | |||
| Rapid Wien | 100% | 46% | 15% | 4.8% | 1.4% | < 1% | |||
| Fenerbahce | 100% | 45% | 15% | 4.8% | 1.3% | < 1% | |||
| G | Vitesse | 43% | < 1% | 43% | 18% | 8% | 3.1% | 1.1% | < 1% |
| F | PAOK | 100% | < 1% | 100% | 36% | 12% | 3.8% | 1.0% | < 1% |
| H | Karabakh Agdam | 100% | < 1% | 100% | 32% | 10% | 2.6% | < 1% | < 1% |
| A | M Tel Aviv | 100% | < 1% | 100% | 32% | 10% | 2.6% | < 1% | < 1% |
| D | Randers | 100% | < 1% | 100% | 26% | 6% | 1.4% | < 1% | < 1% |
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