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Teams from CL are favorites together with West Ham who have a bye into last 16.
| Chance in Group | Stage-by-stage Probabilities | ||||||||
| Group | Team | 2nd | 1st | Last 24 | Last 16 | QF | Semi | Final | Champ |
| H | West Ham | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 63% | 41% | 25% | 14% |
| Barcelona | 100% | 72% | 50% | 31% | 19% | 10% | |||
| Dortmund | 100% | 71% | 51% | 31% | 18% | 10% | |||
| Sevilla | 100% | 70% | 47% | 28% | 16% | 8% | |||
| Atalanta | 100% | 70% | 47% | 28% | 16% | 8% | |||
| Porto | 100% | 70% | 47% | 28% | 16% | 8% | |||
| G | Leverkusen | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 56% | 30% | 15% | 7% |
| C | Napoli | 100% | < 1% | 100% | 56% | 37% | 22% | 12% | 6% |
| A | Lyon | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 50% | 25% | 12% | 5% |
| RB Leipzig | 100% | 63% | 41% | 21% | 10% | 4.9% | |||
| D | Frankfurt | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 51% | 24% | 11% | 4.8% |
| B | Sociedad | 100% | < 1% | 100% | 48% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2.7% |
| B | Monaco | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 42% | 18% | 7% | 2.6% |
| G | Betis | 100% | < 1% | 100% | 45% | 25% | 11% | 4.8% | 2.0% |
| E | Lazio | 100% | < 1% | 100% | 40% | 20% | 8% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| D | Olympiakos | 100% | < 1% | 100% | 40% | 20% | 8% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Zenit | 100% | 46% | 19% | 6% | 2.0% | < 1% | |||
| F | Crvena Zvezda | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 26% | 6% | 1.4% | < 1% |
| A | Rangers | 100% | < 1% | 100% | 32% | 13% | 4.0% | 1.1% | < 1% |
| F | Braga | 100% | < 1% | 100% | 30% | 12% | 3.6% | < 1% | < 1% |
| H | Dinamo Zagreb | 100% | < 1% | 100% | 30% | 11% | 3.3% | < 1% | < 1% |
| E | Galatasaray | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 23% | 4.9% | < 1% | < 1% |
| C | Spartak Moskva | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 17% | 2.7% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Sheriff Tiraspol | 100% | 19% | 3.8% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
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