Updated probabilities for CL.
Chance in Group | Stage-by-stage Probabilities | ||||||||
Group | Team | 3rd | 2nd | 1st | Last 16 | Quarter | Semi | Final | Champ |
A | Man City | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 81% | 55% | 36% | 21% |
E | Bayern | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 73% | 49% | 31% | 18% |
B | Liverpool | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 77% | 51% | 31% | 18% |
H | Chelsea | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | 100% | 60% | 36% | 20% | 10% |
D | Real Madrid | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 62% | 33% | 16% | 8% |
A | Paris SG | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | 100% | 49% | 25% | 12% | 5% |
C | Ajax | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 56% | 26% | 11% | 4.7% |
F | Man United | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 59% | 27% | 11% | 4.5% |
D | Inter | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | 100% | 43% | 20% | 9% | 3.5% |
B | Atletico | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | 100% | 44% | 18% | 7% | 2.5% |
H | Juventus | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 52% | 18% | 6% | 1.9% |
E | Benfica | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | 100% | 32% | 10% | 2.7% | < 1% |
F | Atalanta | 44% | 56% | < 1% | 56% | 18% | 7% | 2.2% | < 1% |
C | Sporting | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | 100% | 27% | 7% | 1.8% | < 1% |
G | Lille | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 32% | 8% | 1.5% | < 1% |
G | Salzburg | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | 100% | 22% | 6% | 1.3% | < 1% |
F | Villarreal | 56% | 44% | < 1% | 44% | 12% | 3.3% | < 1% | < 1% |
Updated probabilities of EL
Chance in Group | Stage-by-stage Probabilities | ||||||||
Group | Team | 2nd | 1st | Last 24 | Last 16 | QF | Semi | Final | Champ |
H | West Ham | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 65% | 41% | 25% | 15% |
Barcelona | 100% | 77% | 50% | 31% | 19% | 11% | |||
Dortmund | 100% | 76% | 50% | 30% | 18% | 10% | |||
Sevilla | 100% | 75% | 47% | 28% | 16% | 9% | |||
Porto | 100% | 75% | 46% | 28% | 16% | 8% | |||
G | Leverkusen | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 58% | 31% | 16% | 8% |
A | Lyon | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 52% | 26% | 12% | 5% |
RB Leipzig | 100% | 69% | 40% | 21% | 10% | 4.8% | |||
D | Frankfurt | 12% | 88% | 100% | 94% | 50% | 24% | 11% | 4.7% |
C | Napoli | 19% | 34% | 53% | 45% | 27% | 16% | 9% | 4.6% |
Atalanta | 44% | 33% | 21% | 12% | 7% | 3.7% | |||
C | Leicester | 21% | 39% | 60% | 50% | 28% | 14% | 7% | 3.4% |
B | Monaco | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 44% | 18% | 7% | 2.7% |
Villarreal | 56% | 37% | 20% | 10% | 4.6% | 2.1% | |||
E | Lazio | 36% | 64% | 100% | 79% | 35% | 14% | 5% | 2.0% |
G | Betis | 100% | < 1% | 100% | 46% | 23% | 10% | 4.4% | 1.9% |
B | Sociedad | 52% | < 1% | 52% | 25% | 13% | 6% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
D | Olympiakos | 88% | 12% | 100% | 48% | 21% | 8% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
B | PSV | 48% | < 1% | 48% | 21% | 10% | 4.6% | 1.9% | < 1% |
Zenit | 100% | 53% | 20% | 7% | 2.2% | < 1% | |||
F | Braga | 29% | 53% | 83% | 63% | 21% | 6% | 1.6% | < 1% |
A | Rangers | 100% | < 1% | 100% | 32% | 11% | 3.4% | < 1% | < 1% |
F | Crvena Zvezda | 42% | 38% | 80% | 49% | 14% | 3.3% | < 1% | < 1% |
H | Dinamo Zagreb | 67% | < 1% | 67% | 20% | 7% | 1.9% | < 1% | < 1% |
E | Galatasaray | 64% | 36% | 100% | 51% | 12% | 2.6% | < 1% | < 1% |
F | Midtjylland | 29% | 8% | 37% | 16% | 4.1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
C | Spartak Moskva | 20% | 27% | 48% | 31% | 5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
Sheriff Tiraspol | 100% | 25% | 4.0% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
H | Genk | 33% | < 1% | 33% | 6% | 1.1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
C | Legia | 39% | < 1% | 39% | 4.5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
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