World Cup: South America

 With three matches left, Brazil and Argentina have clinched a spot in Qatar. Ecuador are 96% certain, while Uruguay and Peru fight over the 4th and last spot. Colombia are challenging and primarily need to hope for a fifth spot which means intercontinental playoff.

Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		Playoff	1st-4th	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Brazil	14	36	45.9	(45-48)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%
Argentina	14	32	38.5	(37-41)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%
Ecuador	15	24	27.6	(26-29)	7%	92%	4%	96%
Uruguay	15	19	24.9	(23-26)	25%	62%	13%	75%
Peru	15	20	24	(23-26)	35%	38%	17%	56%
Colombia	15	17	21.7	(20-23)	26%	6%	13%	19%
Chile	15	16	19.4	(18-20)	6%	1%	3%	4%
Bolivia	15	15	16.6	(15-18)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Paraguay	15	13	15.8	(14-17)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Venezuela	15	10	12.6	(11-14)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 Ecuador can clinch a ticket to Qatar on Tuesday with a win against Peru. Colombia's result against Argentina will also very much determine who will qualify. 

Most interesting matches on Tuesday

Peru vs Ecuador

- Peru have 74.8% if they win; 47.3% if draw; 34% if lose.

- Ecuador have 100% if they win; 99.4% if draw; 91.2% if lose.

- Colombia have 28.1% if Ecuador win; 20% if draw; 12% if Peru win.

- Uruguay have 81.1% if Ecuador win; 77.9% if draw; 69.1% if Peru win.

Argentina vs Colombia

- Colombia have 44.9% if they win; 18.7% if draw; 10.5% if lose.

- Peru have 60% if Argentina win; 55.1% if draw; 42.6% if Colombia win.

- Uruguay have 77.4% if Argentina win; 75.2% if draw; 66.9% if Colombia win.